The CBI survey offers the retailers genuine hope that consumers are prepared to loosen their purse strings for the critical Christmas period; and suggests that some of the recent lacklustre sales performance has been due to consumers taking a breather before splashing out over the festive season. The survey indicates that retailers are relatively upbeat about the Christmas sales outlook for sales with a balance of +21% expecting sales volumes to be up year-on-year in December. This was the first positive expectations balance since June

It also may well be that some consumers have recently held back on their retail sales, waiting for Black Friday price cuts and promotions in the latter part of November. However, the evidence of recent years suggests that Black Friday tends to have more of an impact in distorting the timing of retail sales rather than boosting them overall.