Soleimani Iran
2021
2022
2023
2024
2024-03-05
  • ![Warning poster from FBI](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/902/cpsprodpb/337F/production/_132838131_farahani.png)Image source, FBI Image caption, The FBI warning included grainy photos of Mr Farahani **The FBI is hunting for an alleged Iranian spy it believes is involved in plots to kill current and former US government officials.** The agency accuses Majid Farahani, 42, of plotting revenge for the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds force, was assassinated in a US drone attack in Iraq in January 2020. The FBI says Mr Farahani has acted on behalf of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence. In a notice posted on Friday, the FBI said it wanted Majid Dastjani Farahani for questioning in connection with the recruitment of individuals for operations in the US. Officials say Mr Farahani travels between Iran and Venezuela and has also recruited allies for "surveillance activities focused on religious sites, businesses, and other facilities" in the US. In December 2023, Mr Farahani and another alleged intelligence official were sanctioned by the US Treasury. The BBC has contacted Iranian officials in Washington and New York for comment. Iranian officials have vowed revenge for the killing of Soleimani, who was widely seen as the second-most powerful person in Iran at the time of his death. He was killed at Baghdad airport along with several other Iranians on the orders of then-President Donald Trump. The Quds force that Soleimani led is a branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which specialises in unconventional warfare and military intelligence. It operates outside Iran and supports groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. The US considers the Quds force a terrorist organisation. At the time of the drone strike in Iraq, Mr Trump said the general was "directly and indirectly responsible for the deaths of millions of people". Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded by saying "severe revenge awaits the criminals" who carried out the attack. As a result of Iranian threats, the US government has provided security details for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Mr Trump's special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook. The security measures have continued under President Joe Biden's administration, according to the Associated Press. Image source, Getty Images Image caption, Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state under Donald Trump, has been provided with a security detail Mr Pompeo was reportedly targeted in an Iranian assassination plot along with [Mr Trump's national security adviser John Bolton.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62498193) In August 2022, the Department of Justice charged suspected Iranian spy, Shahram Poursafi, with plotting to kill Mr Bolton. Court filings made reference to a "second target" which was Mr Pompeo, according to the BBC's US partner CBS News. In Iran earlier this year, 84 people died in a bomb attack on crowds commemorating the anniversary of Soleimani's assassination in Kerman in southern Iran. Iran initially alleged that Israel and the US were behind the attacks, before the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. Media caption, Watch: Moment crowds disperse after deadly bomb blasts in Iran * [FBI](/news/topics/c40rjmqdqdxt) * [Qasem Soleimani](/news/topics/c68v58yz1wnt) * [Venezuela](/news/topics/cg41ylwvwgxt) * [Iran](/news/topics/cjnwl8q4ggwt) * [United States](/news/topics/cx1m7zg01xyt)
2024-04-02
  • ![](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MG8sdfx80DMmd-nMe1078UjNRsY=/0x0:6000x4000/1200x800/filters:focal(2520x1520:3480x2480)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73251426/GettyImages_2123635307.0.jpg) Iranian protesters burn US flags during a protest gathering to condemn the Israeli airstrike against the Iranian consulate in Syria, at Palestine Square in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2024 Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images Even as the fighting has raged in [Gaza](https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080046/gaza-palestine-israel), a question has hung over the war: Would it escalate into a wider regional conflict involving [Iran](https://www.vox.com/iran), its various proxy groups, and perhaps even the US military? Nearly six months after October 7, it’s a mixed picture. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have played a much larger role in the conflict than [most observers expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24010092/houthis-red-sea-shipping-yemen-israel-gaza), up to the point of meaningfully disrupting international shipping. But early fears that a full-scale war with Lebanon-based Hezbollah would break out on [Israel](https://www.vox.com/israel)’s “northern front” or that the Iranian government itself would get directly involved haven’t materialized. Nonetheless, Monday marked a major step up the escalator ladder. Warplanes, [presumably Israeli](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israeli-airstrike-destroys-irans-consulate-in-damascus-occupants-killed-or-wounded-syria-says), carried out an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, which [killed a senior Iranian general](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/), Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was deeply involved in his government’s activities in Syria and Lebanon. He is the highest-ranking Iranian military officer killed by enemy fire since Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in 2020. Per its general practice with strikes in Syria, Israel has not officially acknowledged the attack, but four Israeli officials, speaking anonymously, [confirmed their involvement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/world/middleeast/iran-commanders-killed-syria-israel.html) to the New York Times. [Iran claims](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/01/iranian-general-israel-airstrike-assassination) that the building that was struck was a consulate facility that was also used as its ambassador’s residence, but the anonymous Israeli officials denied that it had diplomatic status. Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, [vowed](https://www.ft.com/content/eec24104-1917-4d33-a4e1-263334c93791) that the strike “would not go unpunished,” and Iran-backed Hezbollah has vowed retaliation. US officials claim to have had [no advanced knowledge or involvement](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/iran-embassy-syria-israel-strike-biden) in the strike — according to [some reports,](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-was-not-alerted-about-strike-irans-damascus-mission-us-officials-2024-04-02/#:~:text=%22We%20were%20not%20notified%20by,was%20not%20behind%20the%20strike.) they were told only generally that there would be upcoming activity in Syria — but Iranian officials [nonetheless say](https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-02-24/h_aac727042409eb6038dc29e9bdcb3282) they are holding the US responsible. Iran’s response may not be immediate, but the strike will nonetheless contribute to regional tensions that were already at the boiling point — and there’s a good chance American troops in the Middle East may be in the firing line. ### Iran’s man in Damascus Zahedi was a significant figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its efforts to project power throughout the region. At one point, he commanded the IRGC’s air force, but he’s better known for his work as a liaison to both Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which is allied with Iran. He was the only non-Lebanese citizen to sit on Hezbollah’s Shura Council, the group’s main decision-making body. The [strike also killed six other senior leaders](https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/92098) of the Quds Force — the branch of the IRGC responsible for operations outside Iran — including Zahedi’s chief of staff and the commander for [Palestine](https://www.vox.com/palestine). As such, Israel not only severed a key link between Tehran and its foreign proxies, but also removed several of the men who might have been in line to replace him. It’s a significant hit to the IRGC’s operations, but how much of a setback is it, really? [Suzanne Maloney](https://www.brookings.edu/people/suzanne-maloney/), an expert on Iran and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that many expected Iran’s network to take a blow after Soleimani was killed. Instead, “it’s arguable that today, Iran’s coordination of its various proxy militias in the Middle East is stronger than it was even in Soleimani’s heyday,” Maloney told Vox. “Killing influential figures in Iran’s military establishment doesn’t necessarily produce the corresponding desired impact of degrading Iran’s capabilities in the region. In some respects, it may only harden Iran’s commitment and that of the various proxies.” ### How will Tehran respond? Whatever the operational impact, Iran will have to respond somehow, but it may be the US rather than Israel that bears the brunt of it. [Charles Lister](https://www.mei.edu/profile/charles-lister), director of the Syria and counterterrorism programs at the Middle East Institute, told Vox that “the most predictable option will be to lift the freeze on proxy attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq. Basically, our troops in Iraq and Syria are seen by Iran as soft targets, but also targets that can indirectly place significant pressure on the Israelis.” In the weeks following the [Hamas](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/10/10/23911661/hamas-israel-war-gaza-palestine-explainer) attacks on October 7 and in response to Israel’s war in Gaza, Iran-backed militias carried out [dozens of rocket and drone strikes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-backed-attacks-us-troops-middle-east-since-oct-7-2024-01-28/) against US troops in the region. These culminated in a strike on [January 29 that killed three US soldiers](https://www.vox.com/2024/1/29/24055046/jordan-drone-strike-troop-deaths-proliferation) at a base in Jordan. While the US response to the earlier strikes had been limited, after the deaths it responded much more aggressively [with a strike in Baghdad](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sound-loud-blasts-heard-iraqs-baghdad-reuters-witness-2024-02-07/#:~:text=%22(U.S.)%20forces%20conducted%20a,statement%20from%20the%20military%20said.) that killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, the militia blamed for the Jordan attack. Since then, Iran’s [proxies have dramatically scaled](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/world/middleeast/us-iran-militias.html) back their efforts, reportedly at Tehran’s request. That may now be changing. Shortly after the Damascus strike, [US forces shot down](https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1775140193164460140) a drone in the vicinity of the US garrison in al-Tanf, Syria, though it’s not clear if the drone was actually targeting the base. If it was, it would have been the first attack on US troops in the country in two months. Even before Monday, there were signs that Iran’s proxies were getting bolder in terms of attacking Israel itself. In the days before the bombing in Damascus, Iran-backed militias in Iraq [took credit for two strikes on Israel](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794673) — one on the southern port city of Eilat and one on a Christian village in Galilee. These attacks caused only light damage and no injuries. “The only thing that the Iranians haven’t yet done, which they could do but would be bold, would be to launch missiles from Iran itself at Israel,” said Lister. Though Iran’s proxies — most notably Hezbollah — have directly attacked Israeli soil and Iran has [launched missiles](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-say-they-have-attacked-espionage-centers-iraqs-erbil-2024-01-15/) at what it says was an Israeli intelligence facility in Iraq, it has also [made very clear](https://www.timesofisrael.com/khamenei-reportedly-told-hamas-chief-iran-will-not-directly-enter-war/) it has no desire for a direct shooting war with Israel, which it is in no position to win and could be devastating for its own regime and population. Maloney suspects this calculation has not changed, even after Zahedi’s killing. “Iran is prepared to fight Israel to the last Palestinian or the last Lebanese, but there would be a significant risk for them to try to mobilize any military response that can be directly attributable to them,” she said. “They’ve made an art form of avoiding direct war with Israel.” ### Washington’s dilemma Israel has been [periodically bombing targets](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/israeli-warplanes-strike-inside-syria-time-year/story?id=20746782) linked to Iran and Hezbollah in Syria for more than a decade to keep them from gaining a military foothold on its border. It has done this with the [tacit acceptance of Russia](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria-israel-ukraine.html), even though Moscow backs the Assad regime and maintains its air defense systems. But Israel also almost never publicly discusses these operations. “Israel wants to be able to conduct these operations without necessarily rubbing it in the nose of the Syrian government or the Russians or others,” [Brian Finucane](https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/brian-finucane), a former State Department legal adviser now with the International Crisis Group, told Vox. “But that’s in tension with its obligations under international law, including its obligations under the UN Charter.” That’s because [the charter prohibits](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text) the use of force against neighboring states except in cases of self-defense. Normally, Israel would be required to present its case to the UN for an attack against the territory of Syria and Iranian military officials was justified. The [Trump administration](https://www.vox.com/trump-administration) at least [made an attempt to do this](https://www.justsecurity.org/68008/u-s-legal-defense-of-the-soleimani-strike-at-the-united-nations-a-critical-assessment/) after the Soleimani drone strike, which it argued was a response to an escalating series of attacks on US troops by Iranian militias, though many legal scholars were not convinced. Israel is unlikely to even try. Given that the attack was presumably carried out by US-supplied fighter jets — F-35s [according to Iranian officials](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68708923) — this has implications for the US as well. “As a matter of US law, the [Arms Export Control Act](https://samm.dsca.mil/glossary/arms-export-control-act-aeca#:~:text=Arms%20Export%20Control%20Act%20(AECA,%2C%20defense%20services%2C%20and%20training.) establishes an exhaustive list of purposes for which US arms may be transferred, with “legitimate self-defense” being the most pertinent,” said Finucane. A [national security](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/02/08/national-security-memorandum-on-safeguards-and-accountability-with-respect-to-transferred-defense-articles-and-defense-services/) memorandum issued by the [Biden administration](https://www.vox.com/joe-biden) in February also requires the secretary of state to obtain “credible and reliable” assurances that US-supplied weapons are being used in accordance with international law. “The US government needs to assess whether the strike was a prohibited use of force or lawful self-defense,” Finucane said. In the past, Israeli military actions like these have caused at least temporary ruptures in the US-Israel relationship. When Israel in 1981 [bombed a nuclear reactor](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/iraq-nuclear-vault/2021-06-07/osirak-israels-strike-iraqs-nuclear-reactor-40-years-later) in Iraq with US-supplied aircraft, it took the incoming Reagan administration by surprise. The administration responded by backing a [UN Security Council Resolution](http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/487) condemning the attack. It also temporarily suspended the sale of F-16 fighter jets. But in the current context, the event is likely to be just one more incident in a rapidly expanding conflict. It arguably [wasn’t even the Israeli airstrike that garnered](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/4/2/24119339/world-central-kitchen-israel-gaza-idf-killed-andres-wck) the most international attention yesterday — that would be a strike in Gaza that killed several international aid workers from the charity World Central Kitchen. For the moment at least, the Biden administration still looks set to approve [several major new weapons sales to Israel](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/01/us-new-fighter-jets-missiles-israel-00149976#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20is%20weighing,person%20familiar%20with%20the%20discussions.) including fighter jets and air-to-air missiles, even as criticism of the civilian toll in Gaza continues to grow. As for the long-term impact, the attack likely won’t turn the war in Gaza into a full-blown regional war overnight. But it’s another escalation in a region that can only bear so much. “Iran is nothing if not excellent at assessing risk ladders and escalation ladders,” said Lister. What we don’t know is just how high that ladder goes.
2024-04-04
  • ![The rubble of a destroyed building lies next to Iran's embassy in Damascus on 1 April](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/999/cpsprodpb/2221/production/_133073780_damascus-top3-reuters.jpg)Image source, Reuters Image caption, The airstrike destroyed a consular building (to the right) next to Iran's embassy in Damascus **Iran has vowed to respond to Monday's air strike on its consulate in Damascus - but what capacity does Iran have to hurt Israel and what form might retaliation take?** Thirteen people were killed including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, an important figure in the Quds force, the overseas branch of Iran's elite Republican Guards. Israel has not said whether it was behind the attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had "completely lost his mental balance", Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was quoted as saying on his ministry's website. The escalation was designed to show the world that Iran was a "paper tiger", said Fawaz Gerges, professor of International Relations at London School of Economics. It also represented a significant loss to the Quds force, "which is really for coordination and arms and technology transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria". Hamas's military wing, the Qassam brigades, has said Brig Gen Zahedi had a "prominent role" in the 7 October Hamas attacks on southern Israel, which sparked the current war in Gaza that is threatening to spread. Iran has denied a role in the attack itself but backs Hamas with funding, weapons and training. However Iran's options for retaliation for the Damascus strike may be limited in scope and number, Mr Gerges and other experts told the BBC. "Iran is not capable of a big confrontation with Israel given its military capabilities and economic and political situation," said Ali Sadrzadeh an author and analyst of Middle East affairs. "But it will have to come up with a response for domestic consumption and to protect its reputation among its regional allies." Mr Gerges also said Iran was unlikely to retaliate directly against Israel, "even though Israel really humiliated Iran and bloodied Iran's nose". Instead Iran was likely to exercise "strategic patience" because it will prioritise a more important goal: making a nuclear bomb. "\[Iran is\] accumulating power, it's enriching uranium, it's making progress. And the big prize for Iran is not really to send 50 ballistic missiles and kill 100 Israelis, but to establish strategic deterrence, not only against the Israelis, but even against the US state." Image caption, Hezbollah in Lebanon has been trading fire with Israel since the war in Gaza began Since Israel's war in Gaza, missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed militia in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen against Israel interests have escalated but they seem to have limited their actions short of provoking Israel into a full-scale war. "Even an attack against an Israeli diplomatic mission by Iran's proxy forces seems difficult to imagine," said Mr Sadrzadeh, although he did predict that current attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militia against ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are "very likely to continue, especially against vessels that are somehow linked to Israel or the US". Hezbollah is one of the most heavily armed, non-state military forces in the world - independent estimates suggest the group has between 20,000 and 50,000 fighters, and many are well-trained and battle-hardened through their participation in the Syrian civil war. The Iran-backed Lebanese group has an arsenal of an estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank. Yet the experts the BBC spoke to thought it unlikely that the group would launch a major escalation against Israel. "Hezbollah does not really want to fall into Israel's trap because they realise Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet are desperately trying to expand the war," said Mr Gerges. "The political future of Benjamin Netanyahu depends on the continuation of the war in Gaza and its escalation into northern fronts with Hezbollah and even with Iran itself." Mr Sadrzadeh believes Iran is likely to show a "symbolic" reaction rather than risking a direct war with Israel. "Iran is an expert in carrying out symbolic attacks like the one in response to the killing of its most important military commander Qasem Soleimani," Sadrzadeh said, referring to a ballistic missile attack by Iran against an Iraqi air base where US troops were stationed - a week after the US assassinated the Iranian general in Baghdad. Despite Iran's promise of "severe revenge", no US military personnel stationed at the base were killed, and there were reports that the US military had been warned in advance of the incoming missiles. Image source, Security media cell via EPA Image caption, Top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed by a US airstrike on his vehicle at Baghdad airport in January 2020 Yousof Azizi at Virginia Tech's School of Public & International Affairs believes that there will be a struggle going on behind the scenes in Iran between those who argue that Iran should seek to establish itself as a nuclear power to deter Israeli aggression and more hawkish figures who suggest direct attacks on Israel and its military installations. But he told the BBC that an analysis of state media interviews and key social media accounts suggested the policy of "strategic patience" was likely to prevail. So what other avenues are open to the Iranians? "We cannot rule out that perhaps Iran may use cyberspace as another dimension to take revenge on Israel, either to perform cyber-attacks on information technology, and to cripple, and to steal, and to leak information, or to try to distract at least operational technology," Tal Pavel of the Israeli Institute for Cyber Policy Studies told the BBC. "We know that during the past decade and a half, there is an ongoing clandestine cyber war between Iran and Israel. So in this case, it may be just another stage," he said. It will be up to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to decide what action Tehran ultimately takes. * [Israel-Gaza war](/news/topics/c2vdnvdg6xxt) * [Israel](/news/topics/c302m85q5ljt) * [Iran](/news/topics/cjnwl8q4ggwt) * [Syria](/news/topics/cx1m7zg0w5zt)
2024-07-16
  • A threat from Iran prompted the US Secret Service to boost protection around Donald Trump before [Saturday’s attempted assassination of the former president](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donald-trump-pennsylvania-rally-shooting), though it appears unrelated to the rally attack, according to two US officials. Upon learning of the threat, the Biden administration contacted senior officials at the [Secret Service](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/secret-service) to make them aware, the officials said, adding it was shared with the lead agent on Trump’s protection detail and the Trump campaign. That prompted the agency to surge resources and assets. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. Iran’s mission to the United Nations dismissed the allegations as “unsubstantiated and malicious”. The additional resources did not prevent [Saturday’s attack at a Trump rally](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/13/trump-rally-gun-shots-pennsylvania) in Pennsylvania that left Trump injured to the ear, killed one rallygoer and severely injured two more when a 20-year-old with an AR-style rifle [opened fire from a nearby rooftop](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/14/trump-rally-shooting-fbi-names-20-year-old-from-bethel-park-as-subject-involved). “As we have said many times, we have been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years, dating back to the last administration,” said the national security council spokesperson, Adrienne Watson. “These threats arise from Iran’s desire to seek revenge for the killing of Qassem Soleimani. We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority. “At this time, law enforcement has reported that their investigation has not identified ties between the shooter and any accomplice or co-conspirator, foreign or domestic,” Watson added. Trump [ordered the killing of Soleimani](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths-iran-us-tensions), who led the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Quds Force, in 2020. He reportedly later told friends that [he was afraid Iran would try to assassinate him in revenge.](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/sep/14/trump-iran-assassination-fear-suleimani-drone-strike-divider-book-baker-glasser) The Iranian mission to the United Nations said: “From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Trump is a criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law for ordering the assassination of General Soleimani. Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice.” In 2022, the US charged an alleged member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) [with attempting to hire a hitman for $300,000 to kill John Bolton](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/10/john-bolton-murder-plot-iranian-man-charged), the former national security adviser in the Trump administration. The Department of Justice said Shahram Poursafi, also known as Mehdi Rezayi, offered the money in November 2021 to an unidentified person in the US to “eliminate” Bolton, apparently to avenge the [drone killing of Suleimani](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths-iran-us-tensions). Poursafi is alleged to have said that after Bolton was killed, there would be another job, for which the hitman would be paid $1m. When Poursafi’s indictment was unsealed in August 2022, Iran denied the allegations. _Associated Press and Reuters contributed reporting_
  • ![Former U.S. President Trump](https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/1024x695+0+0/resize/%7Bwidth%7D/quality/%7Bquality%7D/format/%7Bformat%7D/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F72%2F7a%2Fc70cdc594ed3889cb6e8a65bc2e5%2Fgettyimages-1636908776.jpg) The National Security Council had warned the Secret Service and the Trump campaign that there was an increased threat to former President Donald Trump coming from Iran, and the Secret Service had boosted protection for Trump in light of that – even before the Saturday assassination attempt, a national security official confirmed to NPR. There are no identified ties between the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, and any foreign or domestic accomplices or co-conspirators. But Iranian threats against Trump officials date back to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, and in a statement, NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson said that the threats have been a matter of the highest priority. “As we have said many times, we have been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years, dating back to the last administration," she said. "These threats arise from Iran’s desire to seek revenge for the killing of Qassem Soleimani. We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority." Although the warning of the heightened threat to the Trump campaign is new, it has long been known that Iran is targeting former Trump administration officials involved in the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. This includes an alleged plot foiled by the U.S. Justice Department to kill Trump-era national security adviser John Bolton. Other former Trump administration officials have since the Soleimani strike have received protection.
  • 3 hours ago ![](/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png)![Reuters Secret Service on stage after Trump was attacked](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/b027/live/6bebede0-43aa-11ef-b1f8-cb23814887b6.jpg.webp)Reuters Secret Service agents protect Trump after gunfire on Saturday Protection for Donald Trump was boosted several weeks ago after US authorities learned of an Iranian plot to kill him, according to national security officials. Officials say there is no known connection between the alleged Iranian plot and the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday in Pennsylvania. However, the disclosure that security had been tightened raises further questions over how Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, was able to climb a building and get close enough to fire at Trump. The US Secret Service and the Trump campaign were notified of the Iranian threat, and security was increased as a result, according to a US national security official. Intelligence sources told CBS, the BBC's US news partner, that the Secret Service bolstered security in June in response to the Iranian threat. This included extra counter-assault and counter-sniper agents, drones and robotic dogs. CBS reported that the details of a potential Iranian operation were obtained through "human source intelligence", and came amid a notable increase in Iranian chatter regarding attacks against Trump. Trump and officials including his former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, have faced threats from Tehran since ordering the drone strike assassination of Qassim Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Quds force, in Iraq in 2020. The Iranian mission at the United Nations called the report "unsubstantiated and malicious", adding that Trump was "a criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law". ![](/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png)![Getty Images The late Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi holds a photo of Soleimani at the UN in 2022](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cdfd/live/8bb958e0-43bb-11ef-a6bb-a39f03b4c665.jpg.webp)Getty Images The late Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, holds a photo of Soleimani at the UN in 2022 Anthony Guglielmi, a spokesman for the US Secret Service, said it and other agencies were "constantly receiving new potential threat information and taking action to adjust resources, as needed". "We cannot comment on any specific threat stream, other than to say that the Secret Service takes threats seriously and responds accordingly.” The Trump campaign said it did not comment on security matters and referred BBC questions to the Secret Service. Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, said that US security officials had been "tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years". "These threats arise from Iran's desire to seek revenge for the killing of Soleimani," she said. "We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority." She however reiterated that the investigation "has not identified ties" between Crooks and "any accomplice or co-conspirator, foreign or domestic." In 2022, the Department of Justice announced criminal charges against a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, alleging that he was orchestrating a plot to kill Mr Bolton. Prosecutors said the plot was “likely in retaliation” for the killing of Soleimani. Questions have swirled about how police officers and agents responsible for the rally at Butler County fairgrounds, Pennsylvania, allowed Crooks to get so close. The director of the Secret Service admitted that local police were inside the building while Crooks was on its roof aiming at Trump 130m (430ft) away. CBS News, the BBC's US partner, reported three local police snipers were inside the building and had seen Crooks getting on the roof. The local sheriff's department referred BBC questions to the state police, which said it was not responsible for the area containing the building. A state police spokesman told the BBC that it provided "all resources" requested by the Secret Service, including between 30 to 40 troopers inside the perimeter. President Joe Biden has ordered an independent review of how the gunman could have come so close to killing Trump, and the Secret Service also faces probes from Congress.
2024-07-18
  • Iran on Wednesday denied any involvement in the recent assassination attempt on former president [Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/donald-trump/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2) at a Pennsylvania rally, while also rejecting allegations that it had any “intention for such an action.” The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the Biden administration had informed the Secret Service of an [unspecified threat](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/16/iran-trump-threat-secret-service/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4) to Trump from Iran before the July 13 campaign rally. U.S. officials said they believe the attack on the rally, where one attendee was killed and two were critically injured, and where Trump said he was shot in the ear, was unrelated to any Iranian effort. In a [statement](https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/749845/Iran-denies-allegations-of-involvement-in-assassination-plot-against-Trump), Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Iran “strongly rejects any involvement in the recent armed attack on Trump or claims about Iran’s intention for such an action, considering such allegations to have malicious political motives and objectives.” U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Iran may seek to avenge the death of [Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/02/iran-qassem-soleimani-dead/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4&itid=lk_inline_manual_8), who was [killed in 2020 in a U.S. drone strike](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/how-trump-decided-to-kill-a-top-iranian-general/2020/01/03/77ce3cc4-2e62-11ea-bcd4-24597950008f_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_4&itid=lk_inline_manual_8) authorized by Trump. The military action was [intended to “stop a war,”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-plunges-toward-the-kind-of-middle-eastern-conflict-he-pledged-to-avoid/2020/01/03/f0dc0fdc-2e45-11ea-9b60-817cc18cf173_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_8) Trump said after the strike. “We did not take action to start a war.” Earlier in 2018, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, imposing sanctions that debilitated the country’s economy. In a statement to the state-run [Islamic Republic News Agency](https://en.irna.ir/news/85540733/Mission-responds-to-speculations-on-Iran-s-role-in-Trump-s-assassination) (IRNA) on Wednesday, Iran’s U.N. mission described Trump as a “criminal” who deserved to be prosecuted for Soleimani’s killing. “Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice,” the statement said. In January, the [Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/493419/Iran-intends-to-petition-ICJ-over-assassination-of-Gen-Soleimani) reported that Iran was planning to petition the International Court of Justice over Soleimani’s assassination. “As we have said many times, we have been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years, dating back to the last administration,” U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Tuesday. She added, “We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority.” The Secret Service enhanced its protections for Trump in light of the Iran-related threat alert, said a national security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss security decisions. CNN [first reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/16/politics/iran-plot-assassinate-trump-secret-service/index.html) that the United States had “intelligence from a human source” about an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. Authorities are still [searching for clues](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/16/thomas-crooks-phone-motive-parents-trump-shooting/?itid=lk_inline_manual_15) as to why 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pa., opened fire at the rally on Saturday.
2024-08-06
  • A Pakistani man with alleged ties to [Iran](https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran) has been charged over a foiled conspiracy to carry out political assassinations on US soil, the justice department said on Tuesday as it disclosed what officials say is the latest murder-for-hire plot to target US public figures. Asif Merchant, 46, sought to recruit people in the United States to carry out the plot in retaliation for [the US killing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ top commander, Qassem Soleimani, in 2020](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths-iran-us-tensions), according to a criminal complaint. Merchant, who prosecutors allege spent time in Iran before traveling to the US from [Pakistan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/pakistan), was charged with murder for hire in federal court in New York’s Brooklyn borough. A federal judge ordered him detained on 17 July, according to court records. “For years, the justice department has been working aggressively to counter Iran’s brazen and unrelenting efforts to retaliate against American public officials for the killing of Iranian General Soleimani,” attorney general Merrick Garland said in a statement. FBI investigators believe that [Donald Trump](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump), who approved the drone strike on Soleimani, and other current and former US government officials were the intended targets of the plot, CNN reported, citing a US official. Court documents do not name the alleged targets of the plot. Merchant told a law enforcement informant that there would be “security all around” one target, according to the criminal complaint. A justice department spokesperson declined to comment further. Avraham Moskowitz, a lawyer for Merchant, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump’s presidential campaign could not immediately be reached for comment. Trump, the Republican candidate in the 5 November presidential election, was wounded in [an assassination attempt](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donald-trump-pennsylvania-rally-shooting) at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania last month. Garland said on Tuesday that investigators have found no evidence that Merchant had any connection to the shooting, which officials have said was carried out by a lone 20-year-old gunman. Law enforcement officials thwarted Merchant’s plan before any attack was carried out. An individual Merchant contacted in April to help assist with the plot reported his activities to law enforcement and became a confidential informant, according to the complaint. Merchant told the informant his plans also included stealing documents from one target and organizing protests in the US, prosecutors allege. After the failed assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, US officials said that a threat from Iran had prompted the US Secret Service to boost protection around Trump. At the time, Iran’s mission to the United Nations dismissed the allegations as “[unsubstantiated and malicious](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/16/iran-assassination-plot-trump-shooting)”.
2024-08-10
  • Donald Trump’s presidential campaign said on Saturday it had been hacked. Campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung released a statement about the alleged hack, following [reports](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/10/trump-campaign-hack-00173503) from Politico that it had begun receiving emails from an anonymous account with internal documents from the campaign. “These documents were obtained illegally from foreign sources hostile to the United States, intended to interfere with the 2024 election and sow chaos throughout our Democratic process,” Cheung said in a [statement](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-campaign-says-it-was-hacked-blames-iran-2024-08-10/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20Aug%2010%20(Reuters),Iran%20without%20providing%20direct%20evidence.) reported by Reuters. Cheung said: “On Friday, a new report from Microsoft found that Iranian hackers broke into the account of a ‘high-ranking official’ on the US presidential campaign in June 2024, which coincides with the close timing of President Trump’s selection of a vice-presidential nominee.” He added: “The Iranians know that President Trump will stop their reign of terror just like he did in his first four years in the White House.” The campaign [cited](https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2024/08/08/iran-targeting-2024-us-election/) a Microsoft report released on Friday about alleged hackers with ties to the Iranian government who “sent a spear-phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign from the compromised email account of a former senior adviser”. Microsoft did not disclose details on the official or senior adviser’s identities, or the hack’s origin. Trump’s campaign has not provided direct evidence of the alleged hack and the Guardian has contacted Trump’s campaign and Microsoft for comment. Following the assassination attempt on Trump last month, [reports](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/16/iran-assassination-plot-trump-shooting) emerged that a threat from Iran prompted the Secret Service to increase protection around him prior to his assassination attempt, though it appears unrelated to the rally attack in Butler county, Pennsylvania. Earlier this week, the US justice department [announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/06/pakistani-man-iran-political-leaders-trump-assassination-plot) that a Pakistani man with alleged ties to Iran had been charged over a foiled conspiracy to carry out political assassinations on American soil. According to a criminal complaint, 46-year old Asif Merchant tried to recruit people in the US to carry out the plot in retaliation for the US’s 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ top commander. FBI investigators believe that [Trump](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump), who approved the drone strike on Soleimani, was one of the intended targets, according to a US official, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/iran-trump-assassination-charges/index.html) at the time.
2024-08-23
  • The same Iranian hacking group believed to have targeted both the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns have tried to go after the WhatsApp accounts of staffers in the administrations of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump WASHINGTON -- The same Iranian hacking group believed to have targeted both the [Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns](https://apnews.com/article/fbi-trump-iran-hack-campaign-02a44ea734c8ee92c4d3a576af7a79fe) tried to go after the WhatsApp accounts of staffers in the administrations of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Meta Platforms said Friday. Meta said [it discovered the network of hackers](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/08/taking-action-against-malicious-accounts-in-iran/), who posed as tech support agents for companies including Microsoft and Google, after individuals who received the suspicious WhatsApp messages reported them. Meta’s investigators linked the activity to the same network blamed for the hacking incident reported by Trump’s campaign. [The FBI this week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-trump-intelligence-community-52641cd66412d7c01d73876acab3d989) said a hack by Iran of the Trump campaign and an attempted breach of the Biden-Harris campaign was part of a broader Iranian effort to interfere with the U.S. presidential election. A statement Friday from Meta, the parent of Facebook and Instagram, said that the hackers had tried to target the WhatsApp account of individuals in the Middle East, the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as political and diplomatic officials — including unidentified officials associated with the Trump and Biden administrations. A “small cluster” of accounts was blocked by Meta, the company said. “We have not seen evidence of the targeted WhatsApp accounts being compromised, but out of an abundance of caution, we’re sharing our findings publicly, in addition to sharing information with law enforcement and our industry peers,” Meta said in a statement. U.S. intelligence officials say Iran’s [increasingly aggressive](https://apnews.com/article/hacking-iran-cybersecurity-trump-14dce06ff797563bd6b431a7d04e105f) use of cyberattacks and disinformation has several motives: to confuse and polarize voters in an effort to undermine confidence in U.S. democracy, to erode support for Israel, and to oppose candidates that it believes will increase tension between Washington and Iran. Iran has vowed revenge against Trump, whose administration [ended a nuclear deal with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-ap-top-news-politics-iran-cead755353a1455bbef08ef289448994), reimposed sanctions and ordered the [killing](https://apnews.com/article/iran-politics-government-iraq-qassim-soleimani-3353602bd30e683afec45d8c78196886) of an Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. In July, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Iran’s government gave covert support to [American protests](https://apnews.com/article/gaza-war-protests-iran-foreign-influence-95e0a161119ed0e060332feda95b4e4f) against Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Groups linked to Iran posed as online activists, encouraged [campus protests](https://apnews.com/article/gaza-war-campus-protests-966eb531279f8e4381883fc5d79d5466) and provided financial support to some protest groups, Haines said. Messages left with the Trump and Harris campaigns were not immediately returned Friday.
2024-10-05
  • DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Iran has emerged as a twofold concern for the United States as it nears the end of the presidential campaign. Prosecutors allege [Tehran tried to hack figures](https://apnews.com/article/trump-hacking-iran-justice-department-1d7d83ccdc6c879be2802142f1c47191) associated with the election, stealing information from former President Donald Trump’s campaign. And U.S. officials have accused it of [plotting to kill Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-assassination-election-harris-09648f806d7a7f52965782e0edc67e96) and other ex-officials. For Iran, assassination plots and hacking aren’t new strategies. Iran saw the value and the danger of hacking in the early 2000s, when the Stuxnet virus, believed to have been deployed by Israel and the U.S., tried to damage Iran’s nuclear program. Since then, hackers attributed to state-linked operations have targeted the Trump campaign, Iranian expatriates and government officials at home. Its history of assassinations goes back further. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran killed or abducted perceived enemies living abroad. A look at Iran’s history of targeting opponents: For many, Iran’s behavior can be traced to the emergence of the Stuxnet computer virus. Released in the 2000s, Stuxnet wormed its way into control units for uranium-enriching centrifuges at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, causing them to speed up, ultimately destroying themselves. Iranian scientists initially believed mechanical errors caused the damage. Ultimately though, Iran removed the affected equipment and sought its own way of striking enemies online. “Iran had an excellent teacher in the emerging art of cyberwarfare,” wryly noted a 2020 report from the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Saudi Arabia. That was acknowledged by the National Security Agency in a document leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden in 2015 to The Intercept, which examined a cyberattack that destroyed hard drives at Saudi Arabia’s state oil company. Iran has been suspected of carrying out that attack, called Shamoon, in [2012 and again in 2017.](https://apnews.com/general-news-888029171f0e4a67bdbae98cbd5bf814) “Iran, having been a victim of a similar cyberattack against its own oil industry in April 2012, has demonstrated a clear ability to learn from the capabilities and actions of others,” the document said. There also were domestic considerations. In 2009, the disputed reelection of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sparked the Green Movement protests. Twitter, one source of news from the demonstrations, found its website defaced by the self-described “Iranian Cyber Army.” There’s been suspicion that the Revolutionary Guard, a major power base within Iran's theocracy, oversaw the “Cyber Army” and other hackers. Meanwhile, Iran itself has been hacked repeatedly in embarrassing incidents. They include the mass [shutdown of gas stations](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gas-stations-cyberattack-a9ae33c352812e40ca3d255a2533fea9) across Iran, as well as [surveillance cameras](https://apnews.com/article/technology-health-religion-iran-prisons-01dfade61d7a706d630bf83d30d8cb02) at Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison and [even state television broadcasts](https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-television-iran-media-dubai-ff21e219297a7b84c37e088a64c0d895). Iranian hacking attacks, given their low cost and high reward, likely will continue as Iran faces a tense international environment surrounding [Israel's conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah,](https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war) Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-deal-khamenei-us-tensions-bc11763f45041ac84171ebc3866f1273) to near weapons-grade levels and the prospect of Trump becoming president again. The growth of 3G and 4G mobile internet services in Iran also made it easier for the public — and potential hackers — to access the internet. Iran has over 50 major universities with computer science or information technology programs. At least three of Iran’s top schools are thought to be affiliated with Iran’s Defense Ministry and the Guard, providing potential hackers for security forces. Iranian hacking attempts on U.S. targets have included [banks and even a small dam](https://apnews.com/article/20e754ada2eb49edbfe6f5ea823bf5c8) near New York City — attacks American prosecutors linked to the Guard. While Russia is seen as the biggest foreign threat to U.S. elections, officials have been concerned about Iran. Its hacking attempts in the presidential campaign have relied on phishing — sending many misleading emails in hopes that some recipients will inadvertently provide access to sensitive information. Amin Sabeti, a digital security expert who focuses on Iran, said the tactic works. “It’s scalable, it’s cheap and you don’t need a skill set because you just put, I don’t know, five crazy people who are hard line in an office in Tehran, then send tens of thousands of emails. If they get 10 of them, it’s enough,” he said. For Iran, hacks targeting the U.S. offer the prospect of causing chaos, undermining Trump’s campaign and obtaining secret information. “I’ve lost count of how many attempts have been made on my emails and social media since it’s been going on for over a decade,” said Holly Dagres, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who once had her email briefly hacked by Iran. “The Iranians aren’t targeting me because I have useful information swimming in my inbox or direct messages. Rather, they hope to use my name and think tank affiliation to target others and eventually make it up the chain to high-ranking U.S. government officials who would have useful information and intelligence related to Iran.” Iran has vowed to exact revenge against Trump and others in his former administration over the 2020 drone strike that killed the prominent [Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani](https://apnews.com/article/iran-qassem-soleimani-profile-kerman-bomb-attack-57cbc9adff1914e5047c0104b311cced) in Baghdad. In July, authorities said they learned of [an Iranian threat against Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-attempted-assassination-iran-threat-secret-service-87f9a1e6e74c2ac18636334e9b2e03a3) and boosted security. Iran has not been linked to the assassination attempts against Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania. A Pakistani man who spent time in Iran was recently charged by federal prosecutors for allegedly plotting to carry out [assassinations in the U.S.](https://apnews.com/article/iran-pakistan-murderforhire-trump-justice-department-5a3abe0895ae7c2be14f89fc4e49bc53), including potentially of Trump. Officials take Iran's threat seriously given its history of targeting adversaries. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini signaled how Iran would target perceived enemies by saying, “Islam grew with blood.” “The great prophet of Islam, he had the Quran in one hand, and a sword in the other hand — a sword to suppress traitors,” Khomeini said. Even before creating a [network of allied militias in the Mideast](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-war-hamas-hezbollah-iran-proxies-c1bcc770721e39859ab7ffa9dbab6ea3), Iran is suspected of targeting opponents abroad, beginning with members of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s former government. The attention shifted to perceived opponents of the theocracy, both in the country with [the mass executions of 1988](https://apnews.com/article/cbb4cef79970438fa1edcc1300253d5a) and abroad. Outside of Iran, the so-called “chain murders” targeted activists, journalists and other critics. One prominent incident linked to Iran was a shooting at a restaurant in Germany that killed three Iranian-Kurdish figures and a translator. In 1997, a German court implicated Iran’s top leaders in the shooting, sparking most European Union nations to withdraw their ambassadors. Iran’s targeted killings slowed after that, but didn’t stop. U.S. prosecutors link Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to a 2011 plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington. Meanwhile, a suspected Israeli campaign of assassinations targeted scientists in Iran’s nuclear program. In 2015, Iran signed a nuclear deal that saw it greatly reduce its enrichment in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Two years later, Trump was elected pledging to unilaterally withdraw America from the accord. As businesses backed away from Iran, Tehran renewed a campaign of targeting opponents abroad, but this time [capturing them and bringing them to Iran](https://apnews.com/general-news-151ce445a43f3e99a2e086b895ca5588) for trial. Belgium arrested an Iranian diplomat, Assadollah Assadi, in 2018 and ultimately convicted him of masterminding a [thwarted bomb attack](https://apnews.com/article/iran-belgium-prisoner-swap-oman-caa4a1a0ad05711df8f484d83657a44a) against an exiled Iranian opposition group. Iran also increasingly has turned to criminal gangs for some attempts, such as what U.S. prosecutors have described as plots to kill or [kidnap opposition activist Masih Alinejad.](https://apnews.com/article/bahadorifar-kidnapping-plot-alinejad-iran-27c87ab5d350af8b923cc7b46f952a93) Among those targeted after Soleimani's death was former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton. The U.S. has offered a reward of up to $20 million for information leading to the capture or conviction of a Revolutionary Guard member it said arranged to kill Bolton for $300,000. An FBI agent quoted Guard Gen. Esmail Ghaani as saying in 2022 in a court filing, “Wherever is necessary we take revenge against Americans by the help of people on their side and within their own homes without our presence.”
2024-10-12
  • ![](/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png)![Getty Images Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9603/live/32e3fd90-8823-11ef-8936-1185f9e7d044.png.webp)Getty Images Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon is about to end its second week, as Israel’s war has already entered its second year. Appeals for a ceasefire have increased following an air strike in Beirut on Thursday night, and the wounding on Friday, for the second day running, of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon by Israeli military fire. A new offensive is taking place in Jabalia, in northern Gaza, despite persistent calls for the conflict there to end. Israel’s allies are also urging restraint as the country prepares to retaliate against Iran, following last week’s ballistic missile attack. However, Israel will continue to pursue its own path, and resist this pressure, because of three factors: 7 October, Benjamin Netanyahu and the United States. It was in January 2020 when Iranian general Qassem Soleimani landed at Baghdad airport on a night-time flight from Damascus. Soleimani was the head of Iran’s notorious Quds Force, an elite, clandestine unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps specialising in overseas operations. The group – whose name means Jerusalem, and whose main adversary was Israel - was responsible for arming, training, funding and directing proxy forces abroad in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and beyond. At the time, Soleimani was perhaps the second most powerful man in Iran, after the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Soleimani’s convoy left the airport, it was destroyed by missiles fired from a drone [that killed him instantly](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50979463). ![](/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png)![Getty Images An Iranian woman carries a shawl with pictures of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, left, and IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani hanging around her neck during a march in Tehran.](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/58b5/live/66229f80-8824-11ef-8936-1185f9e7d044.png.webp)Getty Images Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, left, and Iranian General Qassem Soleimani Although Israel provided intelligence to help locate its arch-adversary, the drone belonged to the United States. The assassination order had been given by then US President Donald Trump, not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “I never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down,” former President Trump would later say in a speech referring to the Soleimani assassination. In a separate interview, Trump also suggested that he had expected Israel to play a more active role in the attack and complained that Netanyahu was “willing to fight Iran to the last American soldier”. While Trump’s account of events is disputed, at the time it was believed that Netanyahu, who praised the killing, was concerned that direct Israeli involvement could provoke a large-scale attack against Israel, either from Iran directly, or its proxies in Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories. Israel was fighting a shadow war with Iran, but each side was careful to keep the fighting within certain bounds, for fear of provoking the other into a larger-scale conflict. Just over four years later, in April of this year, the same Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israeli jets to bomb a building in the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, killing two Iranian generals amongst others. Then in July, the Israeli prime minister [authorised the assassination of Fuad Shukr](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1rwxyjydlyo), Hezbollah’s top military commander, in an air strike on Beirut. The response of the current US president was reportedly to swear at him, according to a new book by Bob Woodward, who claims that President Joe Biden was aghast that Israel’s prime minister was prepared to escalate a conflict the White House had been trying to bring to an end for months. “You know, the perception of Israel around the world increasingly is that you’re a rogue state, a rogue actor,” President Biden [is reported to have said](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/bob-woodward-book-war-joe-biden-putin-netanyahu-trump/index.html). The same prime minister, characterised as being too cautious by one US president, was then castigated as being too aggressive by his successor. What separates the two episodes is of course 7 October 2023 - the bloodiest day in the history of Israel and a political, military and intelligence failure of catastrophic proportions. What unites the two moments, however, is Netanyahu defying the will of a US president. Both factors help to explain the way Israel continues to prosecute the current war. Israel’s most recent wars concluded after a few weeks, once international pressure built so much that the United States insisted on a ceasefire. The ferocity and scale of the Hamas attack against Israel, the impact on Israeli society and its sense of security, mean that this war was always going to be unlike any recent conflict. For a US administration pouring billions of dollars’ worth of weapons into Israel, Palestinian civilian deaths and suffering in Gaza have been deeply uncomfortable, and politically damaging for the administration. For America’s critics in the region, the apparent impotence of the superpower when it comes to influencing the largest recipient of US aid is baffling. Even after US jets were involved in repelling Iranian attacks on Israel in April - a clear sign of how Israel’s security is underwritten by its larger ally - Israel continued to bat away attempts to change the course of its war. This summer, Israel chose to escalate its conflict with Hezbollah, without seeking prior approval from the United States. As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has learned from more than 20 years of experience that US pressure is something he can withstand, if not ignore. Netanyahu knows that the US, particularly in an election year, will not take action that forces him to divert from his chosen course (and believes, in any event, that he is fighting America’s enemies too). Different calculation --------------------- Especially when it comes to the latest escalation, it would be wrong to assume that Netanayhu is operating outside the Israeli political mainstream. If anything, [the pressure on him is to be tougher](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lr0jd37xo) to strike harder against Hezbollah, but also Iran. When a ceasefire plan in Lebanon was mooted by the US and France last month, criticism of the proposed 21-day truce came from the opposition, and the main left-wing grouping in Israel, as well as the right-wing parties. Israel is determined to continue its wars now, not just because it feels it can withstand international pressure, but also because Israel’s tolerance of the threats it faces has shifted after 7 October. Hezbollah has for years stated its aim to invade the Galilee in northern Israel. Now that the Israeli public has experienced the reality of gunmen infiltrating homes, that threat cannot be contained, it must be removed. Israel’s perception of risk has also changed. Long-held notions of military red lines in the region have evaporated. Several acts have been committed in the past year that could, until recently, have led to an all-out conflict, raining bombs and missiles on Tehran, Beirut, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Israel has assassinated the head of Hamas while he was a guest of the Iranians in Tehran; it has also killed the entire leadership of Hezbollah, including Hassan Nasrallah; it has assassinated senior Iranian officials inside diplomatic buildings in Syria. Hezbollah has fired more than 9,000 missiles, rockets and drones at Israeli cities, including ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have also launched large missiles at Israel’s cities, intercepted by Israeli defences as they re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere above central Israel. Iran has launched not one, but two attacks against Israel in the past six months involving more than 500 drones and missiles. Israel has invaded Lebanon. Any one of these might, in the past, have precipitated a regional war. The fact that they have not will change the way a normally cautious, risk-averse Israeli prime minister decides on his next move. [_BBC InDepth_](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bbcindepth) _is the new home on the website and app for the best analysis and expertise from our top journalists. Under a distinctive new brand, we’ll bring you fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions, and deep reporting on the biggest issues to help you make sense of a complex world. And we’ll be showcasing thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. We’re starting small but thinking big, and we want to know what you think - you can send us your feedback by clicking on the button below._