183782588 story [](//news.slashdot.org/index2.pl?fhfilter=eu)[ ](//news.slashdot.org/index2.pl?fhfilter=uk)[](//news.slashdot.org/index2.pl?fhfilter=government) Posted by EditorDavid on Saturday June 13, 2026 @12:34PM from the happy-anniversary dept. It's the 10-year anniversary of Britain's "Brexit" vote withdrawing from the European Union. But a new UK poll "shows that a new Brexit referendum would reverse the vote that led to Britain's departure," [reports Bloomberg](https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/06/09/872965.htm): _Fifty-two percent of Britons think the UK should rejoin the EU, according to an Ipsos survey of 1,137 British adults conducted between May 14 and May 20. That's the inverse of the mood in June 2016 when a comparable share of the electorate backed Brexit... Younger voters overwhelmingly favor reversing Brexit, whereas half of those ages 55 and above oppose returning to the bloc._ "The number of people who say Brexit is going worse than they had predicted has almost doubled in the past five years," [reports The Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-uk-second-referendum-b2993826.html), " from 27% in 2021 to 48% today — more than those saying it was going as well as or better than expected." _\[T\]here is more backing for a second referendum, with 48 per cent now saying they would support one, against 27 per cent who would oppose it. Even a fifth of Reform UK voters and a quarter of those who voted Leave in 2016 would back a second vote, the study found._ [Tufts University discussed](https://now.tufts.edu/2026/06/08/10-years-after-brexit-vote-are-uk-residents-seeing-benefit) the last 10 years with the European Studies chair at their international relations graduate school: _**Q:** Have their fears of negative financial effects been realized? **A:** The figures are quite revealing: The British GDP has been reduced by 6-8%, business investment has been reduced by 12%, and [trade volume has been reduced by 15%](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo), compared to what it could have been if the U.K. had remained in the EU... **Q:** What do you think happens next? **A:** The United Kingdom made a choice and they might have the opportunity, at some point, to revise this choice. I hope that when they have to decide again, they will be much more informed. _

As the 10th anniversary of the [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum) vote approaches, the verdict on Britain’s economic performance is clear: voting to leave has resulted in severe costs for households and businesses. The immediate recession predicted in the Treasury forecasts ordered by George Osborne – dubbed “[project fear](https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2016/jun/27/project-fear-over-says-boris-johnson-video)” by the Leave campaign – did not happen. The impact from the Covid pandemic, wars in Ukraine and Iran, and Donald Trump’s trade battles also cloud the picture. But experts agree the long-term forecasters were on the money: the economy is significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been, trade has suffered, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and families are on average thousands of pounds a year worse off. Charlie Bean, a former Bank of England deputy governor, who reviewed the Treasury forecasts, said: “Osborne has a lot to answer for when he was basically saying, ‘Treasury analysis shows – look, there is going to be a deep recession tomorrow.’ “That was really misrepresenting what you could take from \[it\] and overselling it, obviously to try and win the argument politically. In hindsight, we had the vote and the world didn’t fall off the cliff immediately, and so the Brexiters can say \[it\] wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. “But the assessment of the broad long-run was in the right ballpark. We’re poorer than we otherwise would have been.” Here are the charts highlighting the economic consequences. > In hindsight, we had the vote and the world didn’t fall off the cliff immediately, and so the Brexiters can say the Treasury analysis wasn’t worth the paper it was written on Charlie Bean The pound is below its pre-EU referendum level ---------------------------------------------- The value of the pound swung wildly after the polls closed on 23 June 2016. As Nigel Farage [appeared ready to concede defeat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/nigel-farage-denies-shorting-value-of-sterling-on-night-of-brexit-vote), the currency gained. But early leave victories in key locations, including [Sunderland](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/dec/08/no-bregrets-sunderland-brexit-vote-nissan-european-union-video), prompted a 10% plunge in the pound on what was its biggest ever one-day fall. The collapse in the pound drove up the cost of importing goods, triggering an [inflation shock](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/british-households-squeezed-by-rising-prices-after-brexit-vote) that damaged the public finances and inflicted financial pain on households across the country. [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/lITBU/1/) Exporters – who typically benefit from a weaker currency because their products become cheaper for overseas buyers – failed to take advantage as uncertainty clouded trade appetite. A decade later, the pound has never returned above its pre-Brexit level, hitting British holidaymakers in the pocket. From close to $1.50 against the dollar and €1.31 against the euro just after polling closed, the pound stands at $1.34 and €1.15. UK growth has slowed -------------------- There are reasons why the Brexit recession never materialised: mostly because the Treasury forecast assumed an immediate no-deal departure, rather than continued EU membership until 31 January 2020 – before an 11-month transition period and other deals since. According to the [Office for Budget Responsibility](https://www.theguardian.com/business/office-for-budget-responsibility), the independent Treasury watchdog, the UK is on track to suffer a 4% hit to national income over a 15-year period. At the decade mark, analysis by [Nick Bloom](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-impact-on-the-uk-economy/), a leading British economist at Stanford university in the US, and others in a research paper for the US National Bureau of Economic Research, show that UK GDP per head is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit. [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/9xV96/1/) Based on performance relative to 33 other advanced economies, the analysis shows that Britain roughly tracked these countries closely until 2016, before a large gap in output opened up. “The statistics are really clear: the UK has grown more slowly after Brexit than before,” Bloom said. “Is it because of Brexit? Probably. You can’t be absolutely certain, but I don’t see anything else that would open up this gap with the UK and everyone else.” Trade has suffered from more border friction -------------------------------------------- Brexit involved erecting trade barriers, which has hit goods exports. The EU is still the [UK’s largest trading partner](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers-web-version): in 2025, exports to the bloc were worth £385bn (41% of all UK exports) and imports £474bn (49% of the total). [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2026/06/brexit-exportschart/giv-32554dmbf5R7hsYhS/) Since the end of the EU transition period on 31 December 2020, growth in UK goods exports has slowed relative to the G7. But service exports have performed more strongly. The OBR estimates this is because the UK-EU trade and cooperation agreement Boris Johnson agreed with Brussels created more friction for goods than services. Exporters, in particular, face more red tape and border delays. Bloom compared the situation to a shop moving from the centre of town to the outskirts: “You make it harder to get there and back, and not surprisingly there is less demand. And you add to the uncertainty by opening and closing all the time, and people don’t know if you’re there.” Uncertainty sapped business investment -------------------------------------- After a shock result, no clear plan from the government or leave campaigners led to years of infighting over just what Brexit – never properly defined, and often subjective – should be in practice. Amid that political turmoil businesses froze their investment plans. As a consequence, investment is estimated to be close to 18% lower than it would have been under remain and productivity up to 4% lower, reflecting reluctance to invest in equipment and projects due to the uncertainty. John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, said: “The investment strike started in 2016 and continued through to 2021-22, and then it started to rise again once certainty about the trading relationship had been established. [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/I1Ffy/1/) “That has an impact on productivity. It means workers don’t have the best kit, and existing capital \[equipment and buildings\] is deteriorating, so you certainly assign some of the GDP losses to that. “Brexit is more a story of stagnation, and a slow puncture, than of recession and rising unemployment.” Employment has suffered ----------------------- Unemployment in the UK fell after the Brexit referendum to among the lowest rates since the 1970s, before rising sharply during the pandemic. However, experts say this obscured underlying challenges. First, wage growth has stagnated. Average real wages barely grew until picking up strength after the pandemic, and even given recent faster growth are only [£43 a week higher on average](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3wx/emp), after taking inflation into account. Britain emerged as the worst-performing country in the G7 for the pace of its recovery in workforce participation after the easing of pandemic restrictions, with rising ill-health pushing up economic inactivity – when working-age adults are neither in a job nor looking for one. [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/4CNSF/1/) Young people have borne the brunt of weaker participation rates, including an increase in the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training (Neet) to more than a million, the highest level since 2013. According to Bloom, employment in the UK is between 3% and 4% lower than it would have been under a remain scenario. Brexit support has faded ------------------------ Public support for Brexit has steadily fallen since the 52%-48% leave vote. Polling last month by YouGov shows [70% of Britons support a closer relationship with the EU](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54567-how-strong-is-uk-support-for-rejoining-the-european-union) without rejoining the bloc, its single market or customs union. [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/mlEvT/1/) More than two-thirds think looser ties would be a mistake. A majority – 56% – would back rejoining the bloc outright. Support to rejoin is strongest among Green and Labour voters, and weakest among backers of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, of whom 83% are opposed. Net immigration surged, but is now falling ------------------------------------------ Post-Brexit, despite the promises of the leave campaign and the Conservative government, net migration to the UK rose sharply, reaching a [record high of almost 1m](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/28/net-migration-hit-record-high-of-906000-in-year-to-june-2023-revised-figures-show) in the year to June 2023. The war in Ukraine and pent-up demand for migration after the easing of Covid restrictions played a contributing role. But changes to migration rules after Brexit also had an impact. [chart](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/tGsqg/1/) Almost 90% of arrivals have been from outside the EU, while net migration from the 27-country bloc has fallen. Employers have struggled with [staff shortages](https://www.theguardian.com/business/staff-shortages) amid the loss of previously readily available EU workers, particularly in construction, hospitality and manufacturing. Net migration has fallen further – [dropping to 171,000 last year](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/21/net-migration-uk-falls-labour-vow-cut-numbers) – amid tougher controls first introduced under the Conservatives that have since been tightened further under Labour.

Ten years ago the UK voted 52% to 48% to leave the [European Union](https://www.theguardian.com/world/eu), triggering a long and tortuous political process. It took until 1 January 2021 for the country to sever its links to the single market and customs union, but the fractures [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum) left in Britain’s body politic, international relations and economy remain. How to understand such a seismic split? Here we look at five of the touchstones of the 2016 referendum and what they can tell us about the reality that followed the rhetoric. Nissan Sunderland ----------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/20/boats-bankers-and-borders-five-symbols-that-sum-up-brexit-a-decade-on#img-2) The fate of Nissan’s factory in north-east England was a totemic issue in the run-up to the 23 June 2016 referendum. For leavers, the site near Sunderland symbolised the British manufacturing prowess that allowed it to sell to the world. For remainers, it represented what could be lost. The British car industry was firmly opposed to leaving the EU. Carlos Ghosn, Nissan’s chief executive at the time, argued that remaining made “the most sense for jobs, trade and costs”. The people of Sunderland thought differently, voting by 61% to 39% in favour of Brexit. Theresa May, installed as prime minister in the chaos after the vote, could not publicly admit Brexit threatened jobs at Nissan, giving Ghosn huge leverage. In a [deal whose details remained secret](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/government-letter-to-nissan-reveals-brexit-promise-to-carmarkers) for more than two years, the Japanese carmaker was eventually granted £61m in state aid to persuade it to invest in new models. The money has kept flowing since: the government gave it another £101m in late 2022, and it is now in talks for more support for Nissan’s latest investment plans. Yet even that support could not fully compensate for the years of uncertainty with the [prospect of a “no deal” Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/03/nissan-sunderland-plant-at-risk-if-uk-leaves-eu-without-deal-brexit) threatening 10% tariffs on exports overnight. The UK finally averted that fate by signing the trade and cooperation agreement with the EU in 2021, which added extra non-tariff barriers to car exports. In 2016, the Sunderland factory made 507,000 cars, just shy of its 2012 record. Last year, it managed just 273,000 cars. It is hard to disentangle exactly how much of that decline is due to Brexit – although Nissan warned privately that being left out of the latest batch of EU rules could [create another “existential threat”](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/05/nissan-sunderland-plant-could-close-if-uk-excluded-from-made-in-europe-rules-eu). The negative impact has been partly masked by a run of other challenges: the coronavirus pandemic; the Ukraine war energy crisis; Donald Trump’s deglobalisation drive; and [Nissan’s leadership chaos and 20,000 global job cuts](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/13/nissan-shut-factories-cutting-jobs-honda-us-china). However, this month the Sunderland factory secured a lifeline: a potential deal to [produce cars for](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/03/nissan-chery-car-building-deal-sunderland-factory) the Chinese manufacturer [Chery](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/03/nissan-chery-car-building-deal-sunderland-factory). If that is confirmed it could transform the fortunes of the factory – albeit preserving jobs rather than adding thousands of new ones. Yet Brexit’s cost to the wider UK automotive industry is beyond doubt. Brian Gu, the vice-chair of the Chinese carmaker Xpeng, is looking to make its cars in [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news), an investment that could create thousands of jobs. Asked this month whether the UK could be on the shortlist, he said: “We will probably want to focus on the largest market first. The EU is one big market.” **JJ** The Thames flotilla ------------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/20/boats-bankers-and-borders-five-symbols-that-sum-up-brexit-a-decade-on#img-3) One of the campaign’s most striking images was the clash between a [fleet of Brexit-supporting fishing crews](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/nigel-farage-bob-geldof-rival-eu-referendum-thames-flotillas) that sailed up the Thames led by the then Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, and a rival [pro-remain flotilla headed by the rock star Bob Geldof](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/jun/15/geldof-and-farage-flotillas-clash-on-thames-over-eu-referendum-video). Many of the protesters blamed the EU for their industry’s decline, arguing Britain got a bad deal when it entered the bloc in the 1970s. More than nine in 10 fishers told pollsters they intended to vote leave. A little over a week later, they got their wish. Despite making up only about 0.3% of the British economy, the fishing and aquaculture sector played an outsized role in the debate, with the leave campaign touting control of UK waters as a considerable Brexit prize. Freed from Brussels’ common fisheries policy, Britain was supposed to be able to control access of foreign boats to UK waters and negotiate its own catch quotas. But Brexit failed to turn around the fortunes of the dwindling and ageing industry. Boris Johnson’s 2020 deal left many fishers [feeling betrayed](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/betrayed-uk-fishing-industry-says-brexit-deal-threatens-long-term-damage). EU boats could continue fishing six miles off the coast until 2025, although Britain did regain management of fish stocks. That anger reignited last year after Keir Starmer [extended EU vessels’ access to British waters](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/19/uk-eu-brexit-reset-talks-starmer-summit) up to 2038 as part of his “reset” deal. Fishers were “enormously aggrieved” by this, says Mike Cohen, the head of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations. “Given access to British waters was a valuable thing, we thought we’d be able to get something in return.” A notable loser from Brexit was the UK distant waters fleet. It now comprises just the Hull-based Kirkella, which catches cod and haddock in Arctic waters. The vessel’s owner [sold the other boat](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/22/we-are-at-50-of-the-quota-we-had-boss-of-uks-last-long-range-trawler-rues-squandered-brexit-hopes) in 2022 after the UK’s whitefish quota was slashed during negotiations with Norway. Britain imported £4.1bn of seafood last year, double the value of its exports (£2bn), according to the public body Seafish. Britons have little appetite for the shellfish plentiful in their waters such as lobsters, crab and langoustines, with most of the catch exported to Europe, a process that has become much more complicated post-Brexit. More restrictive immigration rules made it harder to recruit skilled overseas workers for crews. “Nothing changed with Brexit,” says Derek Meredith, the owner of three fishing boats at Brixham in Devon. Soaring fuel prices and other rising costs are making it harder to make a living, he says. “If I could sell all three of them today, they’d be gone.” **JP** Blue passports -------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/20/boats-bankers-and-borders-five-symbols-that-sum-up-brexit-a-decade-on#img-4) Among all the promised Brexit benefits, the blue passport was something Britons would literally be able to grasp. It was rolled out in 2020, just as Covid suspended travel, but about 70% of the 54m UK passports in circulation are now the old navy colour, with the remaining burgundy all but extinct by 2030. [Brandished with relish by victorious Brexiter ministers](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/22/blue-brexit-passports-issued-redesign-eu), it proved a pyrrhic win. About 70m of the 90m UK overseas trips a year are made to Europe, the latest data shows. Where British passport holders were once fast-tracked through the borders with EU or EEA nationals, they now share a lane with the same rights as any far-flung visitor. And that blue passport needs stamping every time. The [rocky introduction of the EU’s entry-exit system](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/15/eu-entry-exit-system-ees-delays-airports-border-checks) (EES) has, in places, turned the queues into a fraught six-hour bunfight, as the bloc’s border officers take down non-citizens’ biometrics. Even if most people experience little delay, the anxiety has clearly spread: Greece, announcing an exemption for UK travellers this summer, has seen bookings bounce up compared with Portugal or Spain. Regardless of [how well EES eventually functions](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/09/early-summer-holiday-bookings-down-uk-travel-industry), Britons will still face a €20 (£17) charge to visit the EU when an additional layer of border formality, Etias, is introduced in the coming year. The passenger may perceive only pricier travel and time-consuming queues, but international transport operators have stumped up at the back end too. Tens of millions have been spent on EES machines for Eurostar, Eurotunnel and ferries. Airlines such as easyJet had to create new companies and relicense aircraft and crew. Planes and parts are now certified under separate UK and EU safety agencies, and airline chief executives privately express huge frustration at the painful cross-border friction for their supply chain. Perhaps the most damning statistic of all is the surging demand, up 2,500% since the year before the referendum, for one passport granted to those of particular foreign ancestry. Its cover bears not the royal coat of arms but, of course, an Irish harp. It’s not blue, though. **GT** Care home workers ----------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/20/boats-bankers-and-borders-five-symbols-that-sum-up-brexit-a-decade-on#img-5) The febrile debate in the run-up to the vote left many of the thousands of EU staff caring for elderly people and disabled people in UK residential homes anxious about their future. “I think for six months before the referendum, we started to see this disquiet amongst our European colleagues,” recalls Nadra Ahmed, the chair of the National Care Association. “The Brexit debate was quite toxic. It kind of didn’t feel like they were going to be very welcome.” In the years that followed, recruiting and retaining EU workers got increasingly hard. “It just became impossible: we weren’t getting the applications,” says Raj Sehgal, who operates six care homes in rural Norfolk, with about 150 staff. Kieran McCormick, who runs a recruitment agency for nurses and care workers across Northern Ireland, says: “We have seen the volume of European healthcare workers coming to work for us fall off the face of the earth.” When Covid hit in 2020, despite the formidable pressures on care homes, it became easier to find workers for a while, as other opportunities dried up. But, as the economy reopened, the sector lost some staff to hospitality and retail. Meanwhile, many EU workers who had gone home to ride out the pandemic did not return. That picture was being repeated nationwide, with knock-on effects for the NHS. The number of unfilled vacancies across the care sector in England shot up, from 78,000 in 2016-17, to 132,000 five years later. Ministers were so concerned they announced that from February 2022, social care employers would be able to recruit and sponsor workers from overseas. What followed was an explosion in overseas recruitment – annual applications for health and care visas peaked at 161,600 in the year ending November 2023. That year, one in three new starters in the sector was recruited from abroad. [As of last year](https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/Adult-Social-Care-Workforce-Data/workforceintelligence/resources/Reports/National/The-state-of-the-adult-social-care-sector-and-workforce-in-England-2025.pdf), 24% of the social care workforce was from a non-EU country – with Nigerians, Indians and Zimbabweans the top three nationalities. That was up from 9% in 2017. Over the same period, the share of EU care workers declined only slightly from 7% to 6%. By 2024, the Conservatives had become so concerned about the rapid pace of migration that they tightened the rules, including banning care workers from bringing in their families. Labour cracked down further, effectively ending the overseas recruitment of care workers altogether. Sehgal says with local workers still hard to come by, he has been left casting around for overseas students, but “the calibre of applicants is not the same”. “We don’t have a sufficient workforce to meet demand,” says McCormick. “It is typically minimum wage, and folks are saying, ‘I’m not doing that: I can go to Marks & Spencer or Lidl and get an extra £2 to £3 an hour for nowhere near the level of responsibility.” **HS** The City skyscraper ------------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/20/boats-bankers-and-borders-five-symbols-that-sum-up-brexit-a-decade-on#img-6) A couple of days before the referendum, the developer of what was due to be the City’s tallest skyscraper – 22 Bishopsgate – put the project on ice. “We want to see the results of the Brexit,” said Pierre Vaquier, the then head of Axa’s property arm. He was far from alone in fearing the damage to London’s status as Europe’s premier financial hub. Executives warned after the vote that bankers, wealth managers and underwriters would flock to Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg, Milan and Dublin instead. Bosses, fearful of falling foul of EU rules, laid plans to transfer assets and staff. Estimates swung widely as banks like HSBC geared up to move up to 1,000 staff to Paris, while JP Morgan said 4,000 of its 16,000 UK jobs could be exported. Up to 75,000 City jobs and as much as £10bn in tax revenue could be lost, according to calculations from the consultants Oliver Wyman. Xavier Rolet, the then boss of the London Stock Exchange, went further, saying that 232,000 of the UK’s 1.1m financial sector jobs could be at risk. “Nobody really knew how this was going to play out,” recalls Miles Celic, the chief executive of lobby group TheCityUK. But when his team met the then Brexit minister, David Davis, in October 2016, in hopes of getting the City included in UK Brexit negotiations plans, Celic was rebuffed. “\[Davis\] listened very politely and at the end of it, he said: ‘I’m not worried about your industry, your industry is big enough and smart enough to look after itself.’ And that pretty much was what we subsequently saw … The industry has basically been fine. It has adapted.” Firms faced extra costs and were forced to duplicate jobs and paperwork, while regulators scrambled to make sure banking and payments would not be disrupted when article 50 was triggered in January 2020. But the City, arguably, has continued to boom. Ultimately only 7,000 jobs were lost to continental Europe, according to EY’s last Brexit tracker report in 2022. About 1.1 million people are still employed across the City today, where bosses have toasted regulators for tearing up the EU rulebook, scrapping banker bonus caps and loosening listing rules that could help revive the UK stock market. As for 22 Bishopsgate, it only took four months for the developers to decide Brexit was not such a threat after all and [restart the project](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/26/city-of-londons-tallest-building-to-be-built-despite-brexit-vote). It was completed in 2020. **KM**

On the night of 23 June 2016, a storm broke out over Brussels. Rain poured and lightning flashed over the [European Union](https://www.theguardian.com/world/eu) headquarters. The next day dawned grey and calm, but the political weather was raging. Britain had voted to leave the EU. Nigel Farage, then leader of the UK Independence party (Ukip), declared the EU “finished” and “dead”. France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and Italy’s Matteo Salvini were among the far-right leaders who called for their countries to have a referendum. “Only Bulgaria, Romania and Greece will remain when the domino effect is set off,” declared Bulgaria’s then prime minister, Boyko Borissov. Despite heated talk of Frexit, Nexit and Swexit, however, not a single country followed the UK. “Brexit changed the EU in one fundamental way,” Michael Roth, Germany’s former [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) minister, told the Guardian. “Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It’s seen as a warning. “The [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum) experience was so damaging, so costly, so complicated, so complex, that the appetite for that across the EU is very, very, very, very, very, very little.” [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/ten-years-later-has-brexit-benefited-europe-more-than-uk#img-2) Leave supporters cheering the announcement of regional results on the night of the Brexit vote. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters Instead countries are queueing to join, impelled by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland. The EU started detailed membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine this month, while [accession prospects for western Balkan countries](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/05/eu-summit-montenegro-western-balkan-countries-membership-enlargement) look more promising than at any time over the last decade. [Iceland plans a referendum](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/27/iceland-foreign-minister-thorgerthur-katrin-gunnarsdottir-brexit-moment-eu-accession-referendum) on resuming EU accession talks, and support for membership is growing in Norway, though it remains a minority view there. “The UK \[is\] one of many countries seeking a closer relationship,” said Heather Grabbe, a former adviser to the European Commission. As a result, she added: “The UK has slid down the list of priorities,” as the EU confronts Russia’s war, Chinese economic competition and “whatever crazy thing Trump has done today”. After the storm --------------- Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who was leader of the European Council from 2019 to 2024, still feels sadness at the British decision, but concluded: “Brexit made decisions easier … no doubt.” He told the Guardian the Brexit vote made it easier for the EU to “be more engaged” in defence and security policy, which was “useful preparation” for Russia’s full-scale invasion. For example, in March 2021, the EU created the European Peace Facility to fund military equipment and operations abroad. Originally worth €5bn, the pot has grown to €17bn (£15bn) and has been supplemented by [far greater financing to rearm the continent](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/06/watershed-moment-eu-leaders-close-to-agreeing-800bn-defence-plan-ukraine) and support Ukraine. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/ten-years-later-has-brexit-benefited-europe-more-than-uk#img-3) Charles Michel said Brexit had made decision-making easier. Photograph: Johanna Geron/Reuters When Russia launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Michel recalled, the EU and UK were united on support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. “We were systematically, spontaneously, very close to each other, without the need for complicated preparatory tools,” he said. However, Michel also said he missed British influence on economic policy and regulation of technology, such as AI. Some Eurosceptics also regret Brexit. Nicola Procaccini, co-leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists, the Eurosceptic faction in the European parliament, said: “We miss them, but at the same time we respect the decision of the British people.” Procaccini, a member of the nationalist Brothers of Italy, said he had “no lessons to take” from the Brexit experience. Italy, he noted, was a founder of the European project and “we can’t imagine Italy out of Europe”. His party leader, Giorgia Meloni, once called for Italy to leave the euro, which Procaccini claimed was “fake news”. Now, as Italy’s prime minister, Meloni has long since changed tack to work with EU centre-right leaders, such as Ursula von der Leyen, on support for Ukraine, migration and deregulation. One decade after Brexit, Procaccini believes Conservative forces have the momentum, citing the EU’s tough new law on deportations, which he attributes to “the Giorgia majority” – a big-tent coalition spanning liberals, traditional conservatives and the far right. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/ten-years-later-has-brexit-benefited-europe-more-than-uk#img-4) Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen are among the disparate figures on Europe’s right who have pulled together on EU projects. Photograph: Roberto Monaldo/AP But many of the EU’s key figures are in relatively weak positions, making it hard to claim any firm ideological shift. The German chancellor, [Friedrich Merz, has seen his support fall to historic lows](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/06/stuck-in-the-mud-one-year-on-friedrich-merz-struggles-to-find-his-footing) one year after taking office. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has been in domestic political stasis after [a snap election in 2024 yielded a French parliament with no majority](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/frances-snap-election-what-happened-why-and-whats-next). Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has won plaudits over his foreign policy stances, but his minority government is mired in corruption scandals. In Poland, [a president opposed to the agenda of the prime minister, Donald Tusk](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/01/exit-poll-in-polish-presidential-run-off-puts-candidates-neck-and-neck), has made it hard to fulfil campaign promises, while in Italy, even Meloni, who leads one of the EU’s most stable governments, has been damaged by losing [a referendum on judicial reform](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/giorgia-meloni-hold-weakens-italy-silvia-salis-genoa-mayor). Ready to reset? --------------- For a long time, the EU’s vulnerabilities were exposed by Hungary, as its leader, Viktor Orbán, served as disruptor-in-chief, exercising vetoes over big decisions. With Orbán now defeated at the ballot box, the bloc’s officials are considering contingency plans to prevent future vetoes by new joiners who turn rogue. Grabbe, now based at the Bruegel economic thinktank, has long argued that authoritarian insiders pose [a bigger threat to the EU than Brexit](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2017/09/defending-eu-values-in-poland-and-hungary). “The UK was an awkward partner, but it was a reliable partner,” she said, contrasting British implementation of EU decisions with Orbán’s broken promise to back a €90bn loan for Ukraine. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/ten-years-later-has-brexit-benefited-europe-more-than-uk#img-5) Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, seen here with France’s Emmanuel Macron, was a long-time thorn in the EU’s side. Photograph: Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP/Getty Images Now, after a stormy period, EU-UK relations are fairly calm. The two sides will hold a “reset” summit on 22 July, with the aims of striking a veterinary deal to ease checks on food and drink, linking emissions trading schemes and forging a youth mobility programme. Roth, a self-described “Brexit hawk”, said EU-UK relations were “quite OK – actually better than many expected”, because the EU “no longer has to deal with British exceptionalism” inside its institutions. Michel said he expected the EU would react with “a positive spirit” should the UK ever seek to rejoin – “if and when there is there is the readiness for a serious domestic debate”. He said it was for the UK to decide whether “global Britain” had made the country more influential, though his personal belief was that the UK was “weaker” than when it was a member of the EU. For now, no one sees the UK rejoining as a serious prospect. One senior EU diplomat told the Guardian: “On many issues, when the Brits were a part of the EU, we were very like-minded – on the internal market, on free trade, on the transatlantic relationship – and there we miss the UK. “But it is a fact of life, so there is no nostalgia.”

The decision to quit the EU bolstered support for [Scottish independence](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence), which a decade after the Brexit referendum is at near record levels, according to Scottish Labour’s former leader Kezia Dugdale. Dugdale said the Brexit vote “creates a frame around fairness” for many in [Scotland](https://www.theguardian.com/uk/scotland) because, unlike England, Scottish voters comprehensively backed remain in 2016, by 62% to 38%, yet found their country taken out of Europe. She also believed the UK government’s embrace of a “hard Brexit” swayed many Scots who had been undecided about Scottish independence when a referendum was held on the issue in 2014. Support for independence currently stands at about 50%, reaching 55% in some polls. Dugdale recalled feeling “utterly devastated” when the leave result was confirmed early on 24 June 2016. That morning, she spoke privately to the then first minister, [Nicola Sturgeon](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/nicola-sturgeon), telling her: “This changes everything.” She said many Scots felt they “faced an immediate binary choice of an independent Scotland in Europe or a Boris Johnson-led Brexit Britain”, and that sense of betrayal changed the landscape of [Scottish politics](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/scotland). [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/this-changes-everything-how-brexit-altered-scotland-political-landscape#img-2) Kezia Dugdale says she felt utterly devastated by the vote to leave the EU. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian “I think it sustained support for independence, which otherwise would have fallen back,” she said. Ruth Davidson, who was the Scottish Conservative leader in 2016 and championed the remain campaign, was shocked by the leave result. She recalled speaking that day to Sturgeon, who sought to persuade her to “move forward together” alongside Dugdale in support of a second independence vote. “I can remember thinking ‘no, no, no’,” Davidson said. “The remain vote shouldn’t be coopted for something it wasn’t for.” In her memoir Frankly, Sturgeon said:“I felt distraught and enraged by the prospect of Brexit and what it said about Scotland’s powerlessness within the UK. I had a strong sense of ‘If not now, when?’” There was speculation that in the wake of Brexit, support for Scottish independence could surpass 60%, but the tidal wave many expected did not transpire. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/this-changes-everything-how-brexit-altered-scotland-political-landscape#img-3) Boris Johnson neglected to show genuine leadership and failed to articulate a coherent vision for a unified post-Brexit Britain, says Ruth Davidson. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images Instead, over the past decade, the issue’s salience faded as the political crises that followed Boris Johnson’s hard Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine war, and Donald Trump’s chaotic presidencies translated into deep insecurity about the economy and public services. Davidson, a staunch unionist, said she retained her “animosity” towards Johnson, who she believes neglected to show genuine leadership and failed to articulate a coherent vision for a unified post-Brexit Britain. But the “Boris effect” on support for independence was much less significant than she had feared. “There was a hierarchy of concern” for voters, she said. “Whether we were for independence or for staying in the UK was a more material concern than the UK’s relationship with the EU.” The electoral realities of that tension could be seen as early as 2017. Sturgeon’s attempts to leverage remainer anger into an irresistible case for a second referendum floundered. Theresa May’s Conservative government resisted her demands. Support for independence fell during 2017 to below 40%. In the 2017 general election, the SNP lost 21 Westminster seats and its vote share fell 13 points as voters punished Sturgeon for demanding a second independence vote. The pro-UK parties, which had previously held only a seat each, enjoyed a renaissance. Davidson’s Tories won 13 seats; Dugdale’s Labour won seven, and the Lib Dems four. In the five UK and Holyrood elections since, the SNP has never won 50% of the vote, weakening its claims to a mandate for a second independence referendum. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/this-changes-everything-how-brexit-altered-scotland-political-landscape#img-4) Nicola Sturgeon, here campaigning in Glasgow in 2015, attempted to harness remainer anger to push forwards with a second independence vote. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian Yet during 2019, with Johnson succeeding May as prime minister and pressing forward with a hard Brexit, followed by his blundering failures during the Covid crisis in 2020, independence polling changed. As Sturgeon became a commanding presence in contrast to Johnson’s chaotic leadership, support for Scotland leaving the UK surged, reaching 59% by October 2020. Economic decline and fears about the NHS now dominate the Scottish political agenda. Dugdale traces much of that to Brexit, and its impact on the UK’s economy. Based on recent estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Scottish government’s [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) minister, Stephen Gethins, told Holyrood on 18 June that Brexit led to £3.3bn in lost revenue for Scotland last year and added £250 to food bills. Prof Mairi Spowage, the director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, a leading Scottish economics thinktank, argued that while it was clear Brexit had hit economic output, EU exports and public finances, its precise impacts had been obscured by other crises and policy failures. She said the UK’s economic decline could be partly traced to longer-term underinvestment by business and government since the 2008 banking crisis. Since then, Covid, Ukraine, the Liz Truss government, US trade policy and wars in the Middle East have also affected the economy. Migration to the UK, too, has been complex: the “Boris wave” of post-Brexit migration has offset a fall in EU workers – partly due to increasing prosperity for EU member states, once a source of migrant labour. Despite the efforts by John Swinney, the first minister and SNP leader, to make Scottish independence and rejoining the EU central to the recent Holyrood elections, that gambit failed to deliver the overall majority he craved. The SNP achieved 38% of the vote, its lowest since 2007, and won most seats only because the opposition was divided. The anti-EU party Reform UK drove that opposition split, winning 17 seats and is now jointly Holyrood’s second largest party; some of its voters were EU sceptics who once backed the SNP. Dugdale, now an associate director of the Centre for Public Policy at Glasgow University, is no longer a member of the Labour party and voted SNP in the last European parliament election in 2019 in protest over Brexit. Many voters are now driven by anger and disillusionment, partly because of a belief that Brexit failed to deliver on its supporters’ promises. “We’ve had more than 15 years of austerity and 15 years of falling trust in political institutions,” Dugdale said. “If we sustain these things long enough, people no longer trust the system to make their lives better.”

LONDON -- Ten years ago, the [United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union](https://apnews.com/article/london-international-news-brexit-business-referendums-c8e07562df59c35f52085c9b5e75e697) in a referendum that forges political identities to this day and that shattered a half-century project to get closer to the continent. Brexit, short for British exit, became a reality on June 23, 2016, when 52% — or more than 17 million people — voted to leave the EU. Though the margin was narrow, the vote led to the most dramatic shake-up of the U.K. economy and society since World War II. But like any divorce, the paperwork and process of [completing the breakup was not swift](https://apnews.com/article/britain-election-2019-boris-johnson-brexit-ee7ca65659e775ba4d1806311cd58ea9): It took nearly five years. Brexit was born out of a growing sense of frustration not only with [the EU](https://apnews.com/hub/european-union) but over the global financial crisis of 2008. Supporters were able to tap into that frustration, and argued that the U.K. on its own, would be revitalized and able to focus just on domestic priorities. Opponents warned that Brexit would lead to an economic disruption and that it risked the country’s standing in the world. A decade on, here is where Brexit stands. Backers of Brexit — commonly known as Brexiters — held out a vision that the British economy could thrive outside the EU by harnessing the buccaneering spirit that had once made it the world’s biggest. Though the COVID-19 pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and more recently, the [U.S.-Israeli war on Iran](https://apnews.com/hub/iran) have not helped, it’s clear that the [British economy has not been revitalized](https://apnews.com/article/brexit-five-year-anniversary-uk-eu-economy-8a8b87fb3ddd9e9ac278469c291f97c1). Merchants have complained about the hurdles that they now have to clear when trading with their European neighbors — the 27-nation EU remains by far the U.K.’s biggest trading partner. And though there are no tariffs imposed on British goods entering the EU, there is a raft of non-tariff barriers, such as cumbersome customs paperwork, border certifications, and visa restrictions. Many of the trade deals that the Brexiters touted, most notably one with the United States, have not materialized. Experts say the British economy is between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain in the EU. That would translate to much higher living standards and billions more pumped into public services, including the cherished National Health Service, which was promised an extra 350 million pounds ($468 million) a week by Brexit campaigners. That pledge was emblazoned on their big red campaigning bus. “Brexit has made the U.K. economy smaller than it otherwise would have been,” said Jonathan Portes, professor at King’s College London. “The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity,” he wrote in an article for The UK in a Changing Europe think tank. Brexiters argue, however, that leaving the EU is not something that can be judged in the short-term — there was always going to be a short-term economic disruption in return for greater control over an array of policy levers, including on migration. Brexit put an end to free movement between the U.K. and EU, but securing Britain's border has had mixed outcomes. Getting a grip on immigration was a key promise of the Brexiters — their message of taking back control resonated. Though net migration — the difference between those entering the U.K. and those leaving in any one year, from Europe — has plunged, it has soared from non-EU countries. That’s partly because of changes in visa rules that the previous Conservative government introduced to help out sectors that desperately needed migrant labor, such as workers to care for the elderly. [  ](https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-israel-withdraw-lebanon-katz-after/?id=133879236) [  ](https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-unveil-qatari-donated-747-serve-air-force/story?id=134040929) [  ](https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-israel-iran-trade-strikes-trump/?id=133674243) Overall though, there are signs the government is getting a grip on who can and cannot enter the country legally. Net migration has fallen sharply, from more than 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000 last year. Though net migration is down, many are angered by migrants entering the country illegally — specifically the sight of people, often escaping war zones such as Afghanistan and Sudan, arriving on British shores in inflatable boats after making the dangerous journey across the English Channel. The uproar over the number of [small boat crossings](https://apnews.com/video/migrants-crowd-into-small-boat-attempting-to-leave-france-for-uk-23f3243118ae4a2db1063b33af7c5831), which peaked at 46,000 in 2022 and reached 41,000 last year, has become one of the main top political issues despite being a fraction of overall migration. [Anger has focused on asylum seekers](https://apnews.com/article/britain-protest-asylum-seekers-epping-migration-2525f9a548e24b0362b0655492ccb030), often housed at public cost. Unruly mobs have protested outside and even tried to set fire to some hotels housing asylum seekers. In the years since Brexit, Britain's political landscape has fractured, with declining support for the two long-dominant parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservatives were ejected in 2024 after 14 years in power, much of it dominated by wrangling over U.K.-European relations. The Labour government hasn’t impressed either and [Prime Minister Keir Starmer](https://apnews.com/hub/keir-starmer) looks like he will be announcing his resignation very soon. Millions of voters are being tempted by Reform U.K., led by [Nigel Farage](https://apnews.com/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-donald-trump-dc542381b77903eca33771c22bb841b0), who perhaps more than any other politician campaigned for Brexit. His party has led in almost every opinion poll for more than a year. At the same, there’s a growing feeling in the country that Brexit has failed. According to two polls from Ipsos, 52% of people in the U.K. would like to rejoin the EU while 33% are against it. The pollster also found that 48% think Brexit is going worse than expected against just 9% who think it’s going better. Also, Ipsos found that 48% would back another referendum today on the U.K.’s membership of the EU against 27% who oppose one. Against this backdrop, the Labour Party has walked a tightrope since being elected in 2024. Having explicitly ruled out reversing Brexit — or even rejoining the EU’s frictionless single market — it hasn’t got a huge amount of political space to maneouver. Starmer has sought a “reset” of ties following the distrust built over the years of the Brexit negotiations, largely centered around making trading easier. He is hoping to announce further measures at a summit with the EU next month — provided he’s still the prime minister. His most likely successor, [Andy Burnham](https://apnews.com/article/uk-labour-andy-burnham-profile-c9fc2bd8b66d168de0b57408b397bff8), tempered his language on the U.K. rejoining the EU while out on the campaign trail over the past month, ahead of his [victory in a special election](https://apnews.com/article/uk-makerfield-election-burnham-starmer-labour-434ca8a59d57e79590e9a38a31d6573e) on Thursday that saw him beat back a challenge from Reform in a seat that overwhelmingly backed Brexit. “I am not proposing that the U.K. considers rejoining the EU,” Burnham said. “I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.” \_\_\_ Associated Press writer Jill Lawless in London contributed to this story

**Aditya:** I have three distinct memories of that entire period: the sense of anger, the sense of the confusion in Westminster and then, afterwards, this quick curdling into a really base form of racism. I remember reporting around south Wales and the north-east of England and then coming back into London, and noticing that one group were talking about their anger and frustration and the other were talking about facts. On the morning itself, I remember waking up at 4am to write and thinking that David Cameron would have to go fairly quickly, and then at 6am I got a confirmation phone call from my editor to say he would be [stepping down](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/david-cameron-resigns-after-uk-votes-to-leave-european-union). That weekend, I remember a friend telling me he was sleeping with the window open and he heard a guy shouting: “We’ve got our country back, and now I’m going to burn down that mosque.” He lived in east London and there was a mosque at the end of the road. **Polly:** I spent referendum day at the Labour phone bank, where they were campaigning for remain. The group I was with were phoning Nottinghamshire. And listening to the calls, every single one was: “Out, out, out. I want my country back. I want control. Get rid of the foreigners.” It was the archetype of young middle-class students and graduates sitting in London, talking to people in a place they had never visited who were very angry and ferocious. It seemed to me to sum up exactly what you’re saying about the great [remain and leave divide](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-did-uk-end-up-voting-leave-european-union) and how painful it was. I went to bed that night thinking, “This feels terrible.” Up until then I’d felt fairly confident, because everybody kept saying it was going to be all right, and it really wasn’t all right. **Simon:** I was against our joining the EU. I was a Eurosceptic from the start. The prospect then was of joining a very bureaucratic common market, as opposed to being an international country. Why did I move from that position to being pro-Europe once we were in it? Well, the answer was that I was slightly wrong about the EU. And the alternative was going to be worse. On the day of the 2016 vote, I was actually in Germany and had a conference about it at the Humboldt University of Berlin. The people there were European journalists and academics and so on, and they were very consumed by the issue. The thing I’ll never forget was that, finally, after they had all expressed deep concern at the very prospect that Britain may opt to leave, I said to them: “Why do you feel so strongly?” Two of them said the same thing at the same time. “You will be leaving us in charge.” And I then thought, actually, Brexit is not just about Britain and Europe. It’s about the [future of Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/ten-years-later-has-brexit-benefited-europe-more-than-uk). **The deal** ------------ **Aditya:** The thing that really struck me was that those in the leave campaign – Michael Gove, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson – none of these guys had a clue what they were going to do. The Treasury, the Bank of England, which worked very hard on [Project Fear](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/11/project-fear-started-as-a-silly-private-joke-now-it-wont-go-away), had no plan B. So, for a period of years, we in effect had [no trade policy](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/brexit-day-one-johnson-pledges-no-concessions-to-eu), no fiscal policy, no sense of what we were going to do, and we became really easy to mug off as a country. The truth of the matter was that Brexit was a highly technical decision. **Simon:** Ordinary people think politicians have plans until you suddenly realise they haven’t a clue. My only contribution at the time was to plead with the believers: “For God’s sake, tell us what you need. Do you mean soft or hard [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum)? Do you really mean we’re going to leave the European community in the larger sense, which I think would be a disaster, or do you just mean we’re going to get out of Brussels?” And they hadn’t a clue. > I would not want to say that Corbyn played the blinder in that period, because he didn’t **Polly:** The double wickedness of the leavers was to push for the [hardest possible Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/power-brexit-boris-johnson-radical-conservative-party), partly because Johnson wanted to embarrass Theresa May. So he went for the very worst and wickedest option, knowing perfectly well that, as you say, he had no idea what a hard Brexit would do. But I really blame hard Brexit on one person. That’s [Jeremy Corbyn](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/06/corbyn-urges-support-for-labours-brexit-plan-as-house-vote-nears). In those critical votes in the House of Commons when May was destroyed in vote after vote, when there was murmurings that all the remainers should get together in favour of solid Brexit, he refused to join. **Aditya:** I would not want to say that Corbyn played the blinder in that period, because he didn’t. But from the Labour point of view, they were very exercised by the anti-establishment nature of the Brexit vote. To respond to that by getting together with Tories like Rory Stewart or whoever would obviously not look good, right? Palling up for the sake of a soft Brexit. [](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/23/three-guardian-columnists-debate-brexit-legacy#img-2) Composite: Guardian design / Linda Nylind / The Guardian **Attitudes to the EU and migration now** ----------------------------------------- **Simon:** It is encouraging for those who would like to see some form of [reversal of Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says) that the debate has become more technical and less emotional. Some of the racism has gone. It’s about trade, it’s about student exchange, it’s about food barriers – it has become what it should always have been. **Polly:** What’s interesting is that every time specific policies are put to the public – for example, what do you think about foreign students – they say: “Oh yes, that’s fine.” And even a [recent poll](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/two-thirds-eu-citizens-back-uk-rejoining-bloc-brexit-survey) that asked: “Would you swap freedom of movement for easier trade?”, the answer was yes. People have sort of got it. Freedom of movement doesn’t feel so bad. Perhaps partly because, to their horror, the “wrong” people from outside Europe came in after Brexit. They thought it would be the end of immigration. **Aditya:** I’d disagree with Simon’s point that the debate is now less about race. One of the lasting legacies of Brexit is actually that it’s made extremism mainstream, [especially on race](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/20/racism-on-the-rise-since-brexit-vote-nationwide-study-reveals). I mean, the idea that Farage is setting the terms of our political debate is really horrifying. The way that people now routinely say stuff in Westminster that would have had them ostracised 10 years ago is shocking to me. And the way in which the press, especially the rightwing press, just will publish things which I think are bordering on hate speech. The Australian-style point system was meant to be the answer. And what did you get? You get a load of people coming from the Commonwealth to come and work in social care, IT, all kinds of industries that are crying out for extra workers. Now, to say, therefore, that “These are the wrong kind of people”, which is the phrase that people do use … **Polly:** Yes, it’s purely about skin colour, nothing else. You have care workers from Albania or you have care workers from Nigeria. And there is a strong sense that we’ll have one, not the other. **Our future with the EU** -------------------------- **Simon:** I think the question I want an answer to, frankly, is: should we be now moving to rejoin the EU? Or should we go forward in the fashion in which we are at the moment – bit by bit, step by step, join this, join that, rejoin the Erasmus scheme, try to sort out the appalling food-importing regulations and restrictions – such that in two or three years’ time, we’ve sort of half joined? **Polly:** Let’s hope that a new prime minister will say there aren’t any red lines. We will negotiate as we go and see what the obstacles are. We also have to start speaking positively about the EU. Aren’t these rules and regulations wonderful? > Do we do it bit by bit, step by step, join this, join that – such that in two or three years’ time, we’ve sort of half joined? I’ve been following the [fortunes of an industrial valve-maker](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/04/business-brexit-safety-mark-red-tape-) in Bristol. What he has had to do with all of his products, first of all to change it from the European CE mark to whatever the British one was, and then to be told he didn’t have to after all … what he has been through has been completely appalling. **Aditya:** If you tiptoe back to Europe through laws, then that feels anti-democratic. And that, I think, is one of the greatest charges that critics can still level at the remain lobbyists. What I would say about business is that there’s a big study that claims there was a [6-8% hit to our GDP](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/14/how-uk-economy-changed-since-brexit-vote-charts) as a result of Brexit. Which is enormous. I mean, if you think that we’re currently arguing over whether we can get another 0.1% growth … The hit came from the huge surprise and uncertainty felt by businesses such as Polly’s valve manufacturer in Bristol. So, from a democratic and a commercial point of view, you would have to make the argument and be really clear about what it is you’re signing up to. **Simon:** The case has to be clear and debated in public. I hate public inquiries, but there ought to be a major research exercise in which you simply ask what the arguments and economic predictions are. So, somehow or other, make it an argument about facts, then lead on from that into an argument about negotiation. **Polly:** I think it should be emotive stories about shops that have had to shut, things people can identify with. But also, the greatest development in this era: Russia is a dangerous enemy, very dangerous to Europe and very dangerous to us. I feel entirely vindicated by what we wrote in the Guardian back then, virtually all of us, you know: don’t do this, it’ll be a terrible mistake, not just an economic mistake, but a political mistake, an emotional mistake, everything about it. And now we’re just beginning to recover and maybe we can put that decade to rest. * Aditya Chakrabortty, Polly Toynbee and Simon Jenkins are Guardian columnists

A generation of young Britons who were locked out of the 2016 EU referendum because of their age now believe that [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum) has failed, with a majority demanding a fresh vote to rejoin the EU, exclusive polling shows. Gen Z Britons show deep dissatisfaction with the UK’s departure from the EU, according to new polling of 18- to 28-year-olds conducted by the thinktank More in Common and shared with the Guardian. [ UK marks 10 years since the Brexit referendum – Europe live ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/23/uk-eu-brexit-visegrad-four-czech-republic-hungary-poland-slovakia-latest-news-updates) The data reveals that 60% of this cohort would vote to rejoin the bloc if given the opportunity, compared with 9% who would vote to stay out. When filtering the results to focus solely on those likely to cast a ballot in a hypothetical second referendum, the margin becomes a landslide, with the pro-EU Remain/Rejoin camp capturing 81% of the vote against just 19% for remaining outside. The More in Common study, which surveyed 440 young people across Britain, shows that 50% of gen Z Britons categorise Brexit as a failure. In contrast, only 16% view the project as a success, while 34% remain undecided. [Graph of gen Z responses](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/FGdCO/4/) Luke Tryl, the executive director of More In Common, said: “For many gen Z Britons, the Brexit referendum was formative to their political ‘coming of age’. In focus groups, many in this age group say Brexit was the first political event they were vividly aware of – too young to vote, but with distinct memories of that campaign and the years of debate that followed. “Ten years on, our polling of Britons aged 18 to 28 reveals how they feel about Brexit: they tend to believe it has failed, and three in five want a fresh referendum on rejoining. But interestingly, few think the principle of Brexit was doomed from the start – like the rest of the public, they tend to say it could have worked well, but that politicians ruined it. “And while young Britons mostly support rejoining in principle, focus group conversations with gen Z voters suggest they’re hesitant about a return to the endless Brexit debates they remember from their youth, which risks distracting from the issues they care most about – the cost of living, affordable housing, jobs and climate change.” Hostility toward the UK’s exit from the EU is strongest among the youngest adults. Among those aged 18 to 21 – who were children aged six to nine in 2016 – 53% declare Brexit a failure, while only 12% see it as a success. This sentiment softens slightly among older gen Zers aged 25 to 28, though the outlook remains negative at 48% failure to 20% success. While there is a consensus that the current state of affairs is not working, young Britons are divided on whether the project was flawed conceptually or butchered by the political class. About 37% believe Brexit could have worked well but was “ruined by politicians” who handled it badly, while 29% argue that the project was “never going to work” from the very beginning. Only 11% maintain that Brexit has worked well so far, and 23% expressed no opinion. The polling arrives amid a broader national conversation regarding the demographic transformation of the UK electorate. The narrow 2016 referendum result – won by Leave with 51.9% to Remain’s 48.1% – was heavily carried by older generations. However, time has altered the voter rolls significantly. The pollster Peter Kellner has argued that the pro-Brexit majority in 2016 has gone. [Writing on Substack](https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majority-opposed-to-brexit-has), he noted that more than 6 million Britons have died since the 2016 referendum, and argued that because older demographics voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU – 64% of those over 65 voted to leave – mortality has disproportionately affected the leave coalition. According to calculations based on Office for National Statistics data and [published by the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/565655b0-f5bc-46a4-91fd-a560f05081f7?syn-25a6b1a6=1), roughly 15% of original Leave voters have died, compared with 10% of Remain voters. Meanwhile, about 6 million young people who were ineligible in 2016 have aged into the electorate. This generational replacement has led analysts to argue that the pro-Brexit majority has in effect vanished through natural population turnover, creating an active “anti-Brexit” majority of several million living voters. According to the More in Common polling, three in five young Britons – 62% – said that there should be a referendum on rejoining the EU within the next five years. Only 11% of under-29s oppose holding another vote, while 27% are unsure. The appetite for a second referendum is highest among those who wish to return to the European fold, with 88% of prospective Rejoin voters backing a new ballot.

* It’s been 10 years since Britons voted to leave the European Union, but Brexit has not delivered the economic or political benefits its advocates promised. * A number of prominent British politicians, including two of the most likely candidates to be the next prime minister, have suggested the UK could still return to the EU. * While support for returning to the EU is growing, it’s far from clear that the next British government will want to spend years and substantial political capital on another battle over Brexit. This was already going to be a week of reflection on the legacy of Brexit. The referendum in which British voters shocked the world by narrowly opting to leave the European Union took place ten years ago this Tuesday. But it’s become more of a live issue with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s [announcement that he is stepping down](https://apnews.com/live/keir-starmer-resignation-uk-prime-minister-updates-06-22-2026), setting up a contest within the ruling Labour party to succeed him. Starmer was elected in a landslide just two years ago, but his approval ratings are now more [than 50 points underwater.](https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval) There are a number of reasons for that, including sluggish economic growth, several damaging policy U-turns, and the [controversial appointment of Jeffrey Epstein crony Peter Mandelson](https://www.vox.com/politics/478719/starmer-mandelson-epstein-uk). But given that Starmer is Britain’s sixth prime minister in the past 10 years, it’s hard to avoid the impression that it’s become nearly impossible for anyone to govern the country successfully in the post-Brexit era. Every prime minister since the referendum has struggled either with figuring out how to implement Brexit or how to cope with the mostly disappointing economic and social results of it. So, it’s not that surprising to see that many in the country are looking to turn the page on this era. Fifty-five percent of Britons favor returning to [full membership in the EU](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54567-how-strong-is-uk-support-for-rejoining-the-european-union), according to a recent YouGov poll. Perhaps, more notably, a recent European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) poll found that 63 percent favored closer economic relations with the EU, even if it meant accepting the [freedom of movement of people between Britain and the continent](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/two-thirds-eu-citizens-back-uk-rejoining-bloc-brexit-survey) — notable given how central arguments about border security were to the original case for Brexit and how the backlash to immigration has fueled the rise of the far-right Reform UK party. While [Starmer, though an opponent of Brexit, argued](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62045237) that there was no going back and that the Labour-led government had to make the best of it, Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, who is considered the front-runner to replace him, has [said he would like to see the UK rejoin](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21en4807wo) the EU in his lifetime — though he has also pledged not to “re-run” the debates over Brexit. Another top contender for the job, former health secretary Wes Streeting, [also called for the UK to rejoin.](https://news.sky.com/story/wes-streeting-says-he-will-run-in-any-leadership-race-and-calls-for-uk-to-rejoin-eu-13544904) A top Treasury official recently told Parliament that a return to membership was “[an inevitability](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-eu-rejoin-brexit-lord-livermore-b2987576.html.).” London Mayor Sadiq Khan has called for rejoining to be included in the Labour Party’s [next election manifesto](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62g2e08jpno). The idea is broadly popular on the other side of the Channel, too. Two thirds of EU citizens back the [UK rejoining, according to the ECFR poll](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/two-thirds-eu-citizens-back-uk-rejoining-bloc-brexit-survey). Several European leaders have [expressed support, as well](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/spain-uk-eu-brexit-pedro-sanchez-sadiq-khan-b1280274.html). Call it “Breenter,” “Brejoin,” or “Breturn” ([there’s some debate about this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Debate/comments/1meyxbu/brentrance_brejoin_or_breturn_can_we_agree_on_a/)). There’s clearly growing desire, or at least curiosity, about the idea of unwinding Brexit. But returning to the before times is probably easier said than done. Polls [show that strong majorities](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/21/two-thirds-eu-citizens-back-uk-rejoining-bloc-brexit-survey), even including supporters of the far-right Euroskeptic Reform UK, believe Brexit has had a negative impact on the country’s economy and their own finances. For a long time, it was difficult to disentangle the economic impact of Brexit from other recent shocks, including the COVID pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the picture is starting to get clearer. A recent Bank of England study estimated that the country’s GDP is between six and eight percent lower than it would have been [if the UK had remained in the EU](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg75npqkq4o). [The impact is visible](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/22/business/brexit-anniversary-uk-economy-impact-intl) across the British economy: Productivity of British businesses and the scale of investment in the country are both down, and the rise in living standards since 2016 has been weak, relative to other nations. Ten years ago, Brexit supporters raised the specter of “[Polish plumbers](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-polish-plumbers-who-annoy-brexit-supporters-come-from-towns-like-this-one/2016/07/10/0ff923fc-3d4d-11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html)” stealing British jobs. Today, Poland looks like it could be wealthier [than the UK in a few years](https://tvpworld.com/89452827/poland-narrowing-economic-gap-with-uk-sunday-times). As for “taking back control” of the country’s borders, irregular migration to the UK has [actually increased over the past decade](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-10-brexit-was-supposed-to-limit-immigration-it-did-the-opposite/#:~:text=Immediately%20after%20Brexit%20in%202020,high%20number%20by%20historical%20standards.). Then, there’s the Trump factor. The US president supported Britain leaving back in 2016 and even once dubbed himself “Mr. Brexit.” During the referendum, advocates argued that leaving the EU would allow London to negotiate its own, more beneficial, free trade agreement with the United States. But talks over an agreement stalled. Last year’s “Economic Prosperity Deal” rolled back some of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, [but it falls far short of the comprehensive trade deal that was promised](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-us-trade-deal-isnt-done-yet-heres-whats-still-on-the-table-steel-cars-pharmaceuticals/) and was never ratified by Congress. That means the deal could be rolled back, either by this president or the next one. Moreover, the often predatory approach [this US administration has taken toward its allies](https://www.vox.com/politics/471070/trump-neoroyalism-monarchy) has made the idea of the UK pooling its negotiating leverage with the EU seem more appealing than it did in 2016. That may become even more the case with [emerging questions over the regulation of, and access to](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-curbs-ai-spur-european-firms-spread-risk-2026-06-22/), cutting edge US-developed AI models. And efforts to bolster Europe’s military capacity and coordination in the wake of both Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion and Trump’s undermining of NATO have been hampered by the fact that the UK and European countries are no longer part of one bloc. Taken together, EU membership may look a lot more appealing today to the Britons who voted and campaigned against it 10 years ago. As a recent report from the [think tank UK in a Changing Europe laid out](https://media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/UKICE-What-Next-For-UK-EU-Relations-Report.pdf), rejoining would likely require another mandate from the public. This could entail yet another referendum or a party — presumably Labour — running in a general election on a return platform. (Starmer’s successor will be chosen only by his party. The next general election isn’t scheduled until 2029, though the next prime minister could call one sooner.) As Burnham’s comments indicated, given how bruising and divisive the Brexit fight was last time around, it’s far from clear whether the next prime minister — even if he or she supports returning to full membership — would want to use all their political capital on relitigating it. Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, said it’s difficult to imagine this happening without a “catastrophe” of some sort forcing the issue. “If Labour are heading into the next election looking like they’re going to get slaughtered, they might think they need a roll of the dice to reunite the progressives,” he said. “Or if Donald Trump sends troops into Greenland, all bets are off.” (Indeed, Trump’s threat to Greenland is one reason why long-resistant Iceland is now [moving quickly toward EU membership](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/icelands-parliament-votes-hold-referendum-eu-accession-talks-august-2026-05-28/).) If the UK did apply, there’s a formal, tried-and-true process by which countries apply for EU membership and their candidacies are assessed. Unlike some other prospective members, the UK, a member until recently, presumably wouldn’t have much trouble meeting criteria for rule of law, human rights, or economic openness. But even so, the Union Jack almost certainly won’t be flying in Brussels again any time soon. The fastest accession process (Finland’s) took about three years. Britain’s candidacy would probably be dragged out longer, in part because European governments would want to be sure they really mean it this time. The rising political fortune of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK raises the prospect that a far-right British government could pull out of whatever deal a Labour one had negotiated. Britain’s membership would have to be approved by the parliaments of the other member states, and some countries, like France, would have to hold referendums of their own. It would take a while. “Countries have very different views of Britain,” said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe. “There are those that still think that the EU is better off without Britain. There are those who feel that Britain’s departure has really diminished the EU. Britain’s departure was very time consuming, and the wounds are still there.” Britain is also unlikely to be able to get the same bespoke membership arrangement it had before. Even as an EU member, Britain opted out of using the euro as currency, out of joining the open border “Schengen area” that allows for free movement between member countries, and out of a variety of other economic and agricultural regulations. As Poland’s foreign minister recently put it, this time around, [Britain would not get “à la carte” membership.](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/may/06/local-elections-labour-starmer-greens-polanski-red-cross-reform-tories-conservatives-lib-dems-latest-news-updates?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-69fb04658f08711e04fe1223#block-69fb04658f08711e04fe1223) There are intermediate steps between the status quo and full membership that include a “Turkey-style” deal in which the UK would join a customs union with the EU, losing some control over its independent trade policy in the process, or a “Swiss-style” deal that would give the UK full access to the European market for goods and services but require accepting the free movement of people. Whether a full return is actually “inevitable,” it’s clear that the country’s relationship with the EU is still a live issue, and that has implications not just for the UK itself but for the global economy, migration, and military competition. Even reading about these terms may bring back some bad memories of the bruising and convoluted debate over Brexit and the long divorce talks that followed. Ultimately, though, events — including the rise of Trump, the war in Ukraine, COVID, and the emergence of AI — have changed the world, the fundamental question of just how much sovereignty Britain is willing to give up in order to access the benefits of integration with the EU still remains. The last six British prime ministers were unable to resolve that question. It’s a good bet the next one won’t either. See More:

LONDON -- LONDON (AP) — [Brexit](https://apnews.com/article/brexit-britain-anniversary-10-years-economy-b947ef83d4069d236a9a3163ef9d8633) fractured the [European Union](https://apnews.com/hub/european-union), and broke British politics. The U.K. is about to get its seventh prime minister since June 23, 2016, a decade ago Tuesday, when the country [voted 52%-48%](https://apnews.com/article/london-international-news-brexit-business-referendums-c8e07562df59c35f52085c9b5e75e697) to leave the EU after more than four decades of membership. Conservative [Prime Minister David Cameron](https://apnews.com/article/britain-david-cameron-returns-foreign-secretary-81dadeb68e681d0fcf0a6221441f5941), who called the referendum but campaigned for the U.K. to stay in the bloc, [quit the next day](https://apnews.com/general-news-84df60d78c4b4868833a0d79c29eefce). His successors have all grappled, largely unsuccessfully, with the consequences of that rupture. The latest is Labour [Prime Minister Keir Starmer](https://apnews.com/article/keir-starmer-prime-minister-ousted-legacy-934d089558890826778cbe8bc6be1f95), who [announced Monday that he was stepping down](https://apnews.com/article/keir-starmer-resignation-pressure-burnham-uk-politics-8aa1c427418c487fe644f5d5c40d1518) after two years of a sluggish economy, malfunctioning government and a divided and jaded electorate — all legacies, at least in part, of Brexit. Though the decision has faded from headlines, “the subterranean trace of Brexit” still runs through Britain’s increasingly unruly politics, said Chris Grey, an academic who has studied the fallout from Britain’s EU departure. Campaigners for Brexit promised that leaving the then-28 member political and economic bloc would let the U.K. “take back control” of its laws, economy and borders. While the “remain” campaign focused largely on the economic downsides of exiting, the “leave” side was emotive. “We can see the sunlit meadows beyond. I believe we would be mad not to take this once-in-a-lifetime chance to walk through that door,” [Boris Johnson](https://apnews.com/article/boris-johnson-what-to-know-faad810ff08e041130e1759cf5a540e7), a leading Brexit campaigner who later became prime minister, said a few weeks before the referendum. Margaret MacMillan, emeritus professor of history at the University of Toronto, said Brexit was fueled by a bundle of motives including nostalgia “for an imagined past.” “It was against what people saw as unrestricted immigration. It was against what they saw as EU regulations. And then there was this mix of nostalgia — ‘We fought alone in the Second World War.’ Which was of course not true. “It was never clearly explained what Brexit might entail.” Hard reality soon collided with Brexiteers’ bold promises of immigration controls, trade deals, more money for public services and an end to complex regulations emanating from Brussels. Acrimonious divorce talks dragged on for years. The U.K. [formally left the bloc](https://apnews.com/article/brexit-ap-top-news-london-boris-johnson-international-news-e48bf51838ced94e2d92adba189b4944) on Jan. 31, 2020, followed by an 11-month transition period until the final split. [Prime Minister Theresa May](https://apnews.com/article/financial-markets-ap-top-news-theresa-may-london-international-news-5db1e311398f424c8c8806ddbdbeacc9), Cameron’s successor, quit in 2019 after failing to find exit terms acceptable to a divided Parliament. Johnson succeeded May and promised to “get Brexit done,” and managed to secure a bare-bones trade deal after negotiations that left U.K.-EU relations in the deep freeze. He was ousted by the Conservative Party in mid-2022 after mounting financial and ethical scandals. His replacement, [Liz Truss](https://apnews.com/article/liz-truss-europe-economy-business-e18e6e6007c28f6e11cc1a201c545b71), lasted just 49 days in office. Her successor, [Rishi Sunak](https://apnews.com/article/british-politics-rishi-sunak-penny-mordaunt-europe-london-8e621dc1a9415eedc080cdfbd2d41754), thawed [the frosty EU relationship](https://apnews.com/article/british-politics-united-kingdom-government-european-union-0552e9210a850c56a13c0fbb63cd6640) without making major changes. Starmer [promised a “reset,](https://apnews.com/article/uk-eu-summit-brexit-trade-3181228316c3d0cd736ecbf93a1eff43) ” but refused to consider rejoining the bloc’s frictionless single market, which was free of tariffs and other trade barriers. As he hands over power, Brexit remains unfinished business. [  ](https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-israel-withdraw-lebanon-katz-after/?id=133879236) [  ](https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-multiple-people-arrested-alleged-vandalism-lincoln-memorial/story?id=134065497) [  ](https://abcnews.com/US/body-found-search-woman-missing-after-leaving-gym/story?id=133982357) Historian Anthony Seldon said Cameron called the referendum hoping it would end arguments about relations with Europe that had riven the Conservative Party. It didn’t. “The people who obsessed about it still obsess about it. Britain’s problems have continued,” Seldon told Times Radio. During the divorce negotiations, Conservatives who wanted a softer Brexit and closer ties with the EU were pushed out of the party by the triumphant Brexiteer faction. Labour, though much more pro-EU, also has an internal division between those who want to get closer to the bloc or even rejoin, and senior leaders like Starmer who want to avoid reopening old wounds. A decade on, millions of voters have deserted the two big parties for alternatives including the left-leaning Green Party and the hard-right Reform UK led by [Nigel Farage](https://apnews.com/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-donald-trump-dc542381b77903eca33771c22bb841b0). Farage has arguably been the biggest political winner from Brexit. He campaigned for the divorce then complained it had been betrayed. His anti-immigration message has shifted from focusing on Polish plumbers to [asylum seekers in dinghies](https://apnews.com/article/migrants-crossing-channel-france-britain-deal-803215a6a86583c6afb868466851c920). His party consistently leads opinion polls. The economy has struggled in the past decade, with businesses facing new barriers to trade with Britain's closest neighbors, though Brexit is not the only cause of low growth. The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran war also played a part. Through it all, “we just haven’t had politicians who’ve been upfront with the public about the fact that when they get into power, they won’t be able to have no increases in taxes, no increases in debt, and better public services all in the same breath,” said Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government think tank. “And so people are disappointed.” Brexit failed to ease debate about immigration, which has only become more heightened, regardless of the numbers. Net migration rose after Brexit to more than 900,000 in 2023 before falling to 171,000 last year. Cynicism has grown and trust in politicians has plunged. In recent years, agitators have fueled anti-immigration street violence following crimes committed by, or falsely reported to have been committed by, immigrants. In the past, Britain had a firm barrier “between the conventional dominant politics of talk and argument, and what was seen as beyond the pale: violence on the streets,” Grey said. “I think that boundary is being eroded. And I think that did to some large extent begin with Brexit.” Polls suggest a degree of “Bregret” about Britain's choice a decade ago, with a recent Ipsos survey finding 52% of people in the U.K. would like to rejoin the EU while 33% oppose it. Hundreds of people, many waving blue and yellow EU flags, marched through London on Saturday on a “rejoin” march. It was a much smaller turnout than the mass protests on both sides at the height of the Brexit drama. Many people just want to move on. But Brexit remains a minefield that politicians fear to enter. Even if Britain wanted to rejoin, it would be a long road back to a wary EU. Grey said that until politicians are willing to face the legacy of Brexit, Britain faces an “undertow of low-grade crisis.” He likened the U.K. to a person with a nagging illness that saps their energy. “A chronic thing, in this case perhaps not incurable,” he said. “But it’s just that they don’t fancy going to the doctor because they know it’s not going to be very nice.”

In Germany, Downing Street was likened to a transit station, given the regular comings and goings of different prime ministers and staff. Meanwhile, a bemused Spanish newspaper concluded No 10 seemed to have been fitted with a revolving door. As news outlets across Europe digested the implications of [Keir Starmer’s precipitous fall from landslide election winner to ousted prime minister](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/22/burnham-prepares-power-emotional-starmer-uk-prime-minister-resignation), many also focused on a wider reality – Britain’s once much vaunted political stability was a thing of the past. “Keir Starmer’s resignation confirms instability is the new normal in British politics,” noted the Spanish daily La Vanguardia. “Downing Street seems to have a revolving door.” [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/23/urope-media-bemusement-downing-street-post-brexit-revolving-door#img-1) Spain’s La Vanguardia said the UK had gone from a beacon of stability to a revolving door of politics. Photograph: acorujo/web Its assessment was reflected across [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news). An analysis for Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung asked the question usually reserved for England football managers. “An impossible job? Even before a successor for Keir Starmer has been chosen, it’s clear: many fail at the task,” it said. Along with other prominent European titles, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung was explicit about Brexit’s role in both Starmer’s demise and the state of UK politics. “Discontent within his party and the consequences of [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum) made the office difficult for Starmer,” it stated. An analysis by Spain’s El País – part of a special feature on “the political crisis in Britain” – was more blunt. “The broken promises of a Brexit that made everything worse,” the headline stated. “Neither the economy nor the welfare state are better off, but the same political right that drove it is stronger than ever.” An accompanying political commentary was equally frank. “Only a century ago \[the UK\] was competing with the United States for global hegemony,” it said. “Today its economy languishes. Its politics are in tatters.” France’s Libération had a piece detailing “10 years of Brexit and an immense waste”. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/23/urope-media-bemusement-downing-street-post-brexit-revolving-door#img-2) Libération said Brexit had been ‘an immense waste’. Photograph: web The analysis on Denmark’s Børsen’s front page said Starmer had been “chased down by both the recent and the distant past”. “The British prime minister has struggled with problems of his own making, but also to a large extent with the consequences of Brexit,” said a commentary inside the newspaper . “This week marks 10 years since Britons voted to leave the EU – and they are now getting their seventh head of government since the referendum.” Der Spiegel, the German-language news magazine, had the headline “Downing Street transit station”, comparing the prime ministerial residence to a bustling railway interchange. Recounting the departures of recent incumbents, it stated: “A gambler \[David Cameron\], a populist \[Boris Johnson\], a head of government for six weeks \[Liz Truss\]: Even in the years before Keir Starmer, the position of British prime minister was a hot seat.” Despite Britain’s now blighted history of prime ministerial departures, Germany’s liberal-leaning Süddeutsche Zeitung did find something novel in the sheer pace of Starmer’s decline. “The British yearn for someone who gives them hope,” it read. “Keir Starmer was honest with them. It’s not uncommon for things to go wrong between the people and the government. But the speed with which the prime minister became a villain is astonishing.” Libération concluded Starmer had been brought to power “more by voters’ rejection of the Conservatives than by support for his own programme”, with his leadership collapsing under its own controversies and contradictions. There were some sympathetic takes on Starmer’s tenure, however, including from Trouw, the liberal-leaning Dutch newspaper. “After Starmer, Labour needs a prime minister who pats himself on the back more,” an analysis stated, arguing Starmer’s achievements had gone unnoticed due to his poor political communication skills. “His successor must be in office before September,” it said. “That new Labour leader will need to be better able to claim credit for successes.” Given the forces that have dislodged so many prime ministers since the Brexit vote, a comment piece for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung did not expect much to change with [Andy Burnham’s imminent elevation](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/22/who-andy-burnham-likely-next-uk-prime-minister). Its headline simply read: “New head, old problems.”

新闻分析  2016年6月伦敦的一场“脱欧”集会。脱离欧盟的提案以微弱优势通过 ... 2016年6月23日，英国人以微弱多数[投票决定脱离](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-referendum.html?ref=world)欧盟。自此，英国民众、政界和企业一直在思索这一决定的后果。贸易、旅行、工作、留学、税收、边境、食品价格、民族自豪感——公投过去十年，几乎生活的每个角落都未能幸免

Back in October 2020, the UK immigration minister stood up in parliament to reassure campaigners concerned about EU citizens who weren’t aware they had to ask the [Home Office](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/home-office) to stay in the country after Brexit. Using an example of a child in foster care who might not know they were an EU citizen until they applied for their first job, the Conservative Kevin Foster said the UK would take [“a generous approach](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/15/new-brexit-law-vulnerable-eu-citizens-apply-late-to-stay-in-uk) as to what reasonable grounds \[for failing to apply\] were”. In other words, the UK/EU [Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum) agreement was designed to protect those who had exercised lawful freedom of movement, and they couldn’t just be chucked out of their host state because the UK had decided to leave the EU. The Home Office is not perfect, and is regularly criticised by campaigners for missteps over the implementation of the EU citizens chapter in the EU-UK withdrawal agreement. But “reasonable grounds” have been outlined in parliament, providing legal arguments to challengers. Yet thousands of miles away in [Sweden](https://www.theguardian.com/world/sweden), post-Brexit rights are being undermined with an apparent high level of removal orders for law-abiding British citizens, some at the most vulnerable stage of their lives. One 74-year-old British man, who has been in Sweden for 25 years, is [this week facing deportation](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/12/british-man-dementia-leave-sweden-brexit-migration-case) despite having vascular dementia and parkinsonism, and being so incapacitated that he is in full-time care. Rejecting a legal request for him to stay using family ties, a Swedish court ruled that immigration interests trumped human rights. “Upon balancing the state’s interest in regulated immigration against what has emerged regarding Horace Mason’s private life and his adaptation to Sweden, the migration court concludes, on balance, that his deportation appears proportionate,” it ruled. [](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/aug/15/post-brexit-rights-british-citizens-sweden-removal-orders-analysis#img-2) Horace Mason, 74, seen here with his daughter Michelle, is in full-time care but faces deportation from Sweden. Photograph: The Mason family This week, [Joyce Thomas](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/14/british-widow-joyce-thomas-sweden-deported-brexit-policy), a 78-year-old widow who has been in Sweden for 21 years, also lost her appeal to reverse a migration agency decision that she [has to leave the country](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/10/british-widow-78-told-to-leave-sweden-under-brexit-rules-after-living-there-for-21-years) within four weeks. “It would be difficult to find anyone who would argue that what is happening to Mrs Thomas and others in Sweden was an intended outcome of the \[EU-UK\] withdrawal agreement,” said David Milstead, of the campaign group British in Sweden. He said he knew of people who, on receiving the removal order, just left, “too embarrassed” to fight it. The question now is whether the Conservative party failed British citizens during Brexit negotiations by not spotting the difficulties with the “constitutive” system adopted by 13 countries – including the UK – where EU citizens (including, at the time, British citizens living elsewhere in the EU) had to make an application to stay. Others, such as Spain, opted for a “declaratory” system, whereby EU citizens just had to register their presence before Brexit. Did the government fail to communicate this effectively to the estimated 1 million Britons in the EU? Or has the European Commission failed to enforce the withdrawal agreement to protect citizens in practice? “Problems will inevitably emerge when a new treaty is put into practice. However, the UK, the EU and Sweden must act to address them. Words and expressions of concern won’t cut it,” said Milstead. One of the problems is lack of political interest in Sweden. Politicians in Sweden have the perfect get-out clause: legally, they are unable to interfere in any decisions made by the Migrationsverket, the Swedish migration agency. The UK government has raised the issue of Sweden multiple times, but it is years since the first cases emerged and nothing appears to have changed. Two years ago, [Kathleen Poole, who had Alzheimer’s, faced deportation](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/13/post-brexit-rules-leave-british-woman-with-alzheimers-facing-removal-from-sweden) from a dementia care home because she did not have up-to-date bank statements and a passport. Her case was paused – long enough not to be acted upon, as she died soon after. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/aug/15/post-brexit-rights-british-citizens-sweden-removal-orders-analysis#EmailSignup-skip-link-16) Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment  after newsletter promotion One UK government source said it was “concerned that Sweden is taking a considerably stricter approach to this requirement than other member states”, adding that “in practice individuals are not likely to have their reasonable grounds accepted”. The latest statistics available (2024) show only about 14,000 applications to stay post-Brexit have been made in Sweden. But of those, 27.5% were refused – a refusal rate three times higher than in any other member state, and far higher than the EU average of 3%-4%. Thomas, like many others who have contacted the British in Sweden group, believes she had “reasonable grounds” for her late application. She and her late husband were told they didn’t have to do anything – a story told over and over by Britons in touch with Milstead. Felix Andler, a Swedish hospital neurologist and family friend of Thomas, said he had spoken to her husband before 2020 about how Brexit affected him. “I remember talking to Gwynne and asking him, is there anything you have to do? And he said, ‘No, I checked it and we are good’, so I take it he looked it up or contacted someone at the British Foreign Office.” Joyce says even if the government had communicated the need to make a special application to stay after Brexit, they didn’t do it well enough. “They have our ID cards, our email addresses and contact us with other important information, why not something as critical as this? It is mind-blowing,” she said. “Simply stating that the person was unaware of the requirement to apply is not, in itself, considered a sufficient explanation,” said a spokesperson for the Swedish migration authority. In 2022 similar stories were [emerging from Denmark](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/25/british-man-deported-denmark-post-brexit-rules) of Britons being ordered to leave: in one instance because a man was three weeks too late to apply to stay, and in another, a man was just four days late. The Danish government [acknowledged communications shortcomings](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/28/denmark-lifts-brexit-related-deportation-threat-for-british-nationals) and changed the law to allow Britons another chance to apply for residency rights.